Lots Of Runs Expected At Minnesota When Leagues Worst Bullpens Collide

Minnesota Twins

Drew Martin

Tuesday, July 26, 2016 10:18 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 26, 2016 10:18 PM UTC

Bad bullpens equal lots of runs in Minnesota. Join our SBR capper as he reviews a match between worst team in the AL hosting the worst team in the NL for valuable MLB pick.

Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
A quarter century ago the Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves were battling for the World Series, fast forward 25 years and we have the worst team in the American League hosting the worst team in the National League. Atlanta opens a two-game series at Minnesota tonight possessing baseball's worst record at 33-66, 4.5 games behind the Twins' American League worst 37-61. As these two team’s matchup with hopes to avoid becoming the worst record in baseball, a couple metrics point to value in the game total in Target Field.


Minnesota has been one of the best over teams all year long. In fact, the Twins have the most over tendency of 2016. The Twins currently post a 57-35-6 mark to the over which is the highest percentage of over cashing tickets in all of Major League baseball. Lately, third baseman Miguel Sano has been heating up, batting .302 in his past 25 games with 12 extra-base hits (four doubles, eight homeruns). Minnesota has played better in July, winning 12 of its 20 contests this month behind the bat of Sano. 

Another reason the Twins have found success of late is Ervin Santana, who went 14-10 with Atlanta in 2014 before signing a four-year deal with the Twins, he most recently held Detroit to one run on six hits in a no-decision Wednesday and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his past six outings. Although catcher Kurt Suzuki might be out, he received eight stitches to his chin after getting hit by a foul tip Saturday, he was held out of Sunday's lineup. The pitcher/catcher rhythm could take a hit tonight if Suzuki cannot call the game behind the plate. Plus, another reason to look towards more runs tonight, backup catcher Juan Centeno, who replaced Suzuki on Sunday, recorded his eighth multi-hit game in 24 starts with a 3-for-4, three RBI performance.


Atlanta was swept in a four-game series at Colorado during which it was outscored 26-12, and has lost five in a row overall. The Braves send right hander Lucas Harrell to the hill tonight to face a hard hitting Twins lineup. Harrell has struggled a bit with control in his past two starts, walking six in 9 2/3 innings after issuing just three in his first 13 2/3 frames. If Harrell cannot find his control tonight in Target Field, it could be disastrous for the Braves having to use their bullpen for an extended stretch in the series following the thin air of Coors Field.


Final Analysis
Finally, these are two of the top ten worst bullpens in baseball, both sporting north of a 1.39 WHIP. The Braves pen is particularly bad and very much taxed at this point tin the season. The Minnesota relievers are not much better, having surrendered 24 runs in the previous 14 games, before their last time out. Given each teams struggles from the bullpen, combined with the Twins propensity to hit overs at an astronomical rate I recommend an over wager for my MLB pick on tonight’s total with MLB odds showing 9 -110 at BetDSI. 


Free MLB Pick: Over 9 -110
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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