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Dodgers vs. Padres: MLB Picks and Predictions

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Dodgers vs. Padres: MLB Picks and Predictions
Zach Davies #42 of the San Diego Padres pitches. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images/AFP

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Tuesday, September 15, 2020 – 9:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park

While Dodgers fans were busy worrying about the Houston Astros this past weekend, they might have missed the Padres closing in on Los Angeles in the NL West race. San Diego certainly got their attention on Monday night with a victory in the opener of a huge series. The Padres can make LA’s advantage even tighter when the teams continue the set on Tuesday.

Despite the Game 1 triumph and the Padres’ blistering 8-game win streak, it’s the Dodgers who draw the chalk in Tuesday’s tilt at SBR’s top online betting sites. Los Angeles is sending Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.57) out to the bump and priced around -130 at most shops. San Diego counters with Zach Davies (7-2, 2.48) with an 8½-run total that favors the ‘over.’

Friars Have Won 12 Of Last 14

The first six innings on Monday gave us a nice 1-1 pitching duel between Clayton Kershaw and Dinelson Lamet. That came to an abrupt end in the seventh, when the Padres plated five to chase Kershaw en route to a 7-2 final. Four of San Diego’s runs in the decisive seventh scored on balls that never left the infield, and the loss left Los Angeles with just a 1½-game lead over the Padres.

Though they may lead the NL with 90 HR, the Dodgers have plenty of holes in the lineup with four hitters in Monday’s lineup batting under .200. They could get Justin Turner back in the mix on Tuesday, though he’ll be limited to just hitting as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. San Diego has managed to win eight in a row despite Fernando Tatis, Jr. batting just .105 (2-19) his last six games.

It has been a little more than a month since the clubs split a 4-game set in LA, the ‘under’ cashing three times in that series. The played a 3-game series in San Diego a week before that, and the Dodgers won twice. All three games in the series at Petco closed with 8-run totals on the MLB odds, and ‘over’ bettors were rewarded twice. With the August wins in San Diego, the Dodgers have won 16 of the last 22 matchups at Petco Park.

Davies Riding 5-Start Win Streak

Gonsolin has been limited to about 80 tosses in each of his five starts, and that’s the exact number he threw last week when he was summoned from the bullpen for a 5-inning relief outing. He worked six solid frames five days before that against the Rockies, striking out eight, and allowing just a run on three hits in a no-decision.

The 26-year-old squared off against Davies and the Padres earlier this season, and couldn’t get through the fifth to qualify for the dubya in the eventual 6-0 LA victory. Gonsolin’s only experience at Petco Park came in a relief stint last season, and he managed to grab the win in that contest with a pair of perfect frames.

Moving west to San Diego has been a good thing for Davies, who is having a solid campaign after pitching the previous five years for Milwaukee. The 27-year-old has managed to work at least five innings in each of his nine starts and gone six or more in three of the last four. He’s on a 5-start win streak while pitching to a 2.27 ERA in that span, and San Diego sticks have given him more than enough offense with 49 runs in those outings.

One of his two losses came against Gonsolin and the Dodgers in LA a little more than a month ago, though Davies pitched well enough to win that with seven frames of 2-run baseball. The Padres have won all three of his home starts, Davies holding batters to a .171 batting average in San Diego.

Tony Gonsolin #46 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a pitch. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick Quinn

Wolcott is next up in the umpire rotation to call balls and strikes and brings a 5-4 O/U record on the season into Tuesday’s contest. Despite being one of the youngest umpires in the majors, the 34-year-old Wolcott has seven years of service behind him and has been a boon for home bettors this season with a 7-2 record favoring the hosts. He worked a Gonsolin start in Arizona earlier that resulted in a Diamondbacks win and ‘under.’

Another gorgeous day is in store for San Diego, the thermometer sitting around 76° at first pitch without a cloud in the sky. My MLB pick is based on the old adage, regarding not betting against a streak like the one San Diego is on.

Free MLB Pick: Padres +117 at Heritage (visit our Heritage Review)

Padres+117
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