Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
After the teams went ‘under’ in the altitude in the series opener, run were more plentiful last night and we are looking for more of the same Sunday when right-hander Tyson Ross and the San Diego Padres (66-75, 26-44 away) again pay a visit to southpaw Franklin Morales and the Colorado Rockies (58-84, 38-35 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 4:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -104.
The Rockies have taken the first two games of this series, but each game could not have played out any differently as the bats for each team were quiet in the 3-0 Colorado shutout win in the series opener Friday, but the offenses awoke last night as the Rockies won 7-6 in 12 innings. And that was with Rockies’ ace and Coors Field lover Jorge De La Rosa on the mound, although he was only charged with three earned runs in a relatively short 5.2 innings.
The Rockies are now 4-1 on their current home stand including three wins in a row, but they have still been the worst MLB picks in the National League at 58-84 although they have now improved to being just one game worse than their National League West mates, the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres are third in the division, but that is basically by default in a weak group as they are 13½ games out of first and 11½ out of second.
Struggling Mightily at Home Lately
The Rocks have been a much better team at home where they are currently three games over .500, but that is primarily because of their offense as the pitching besides De La Rosa has been sub-par, and Morales has been downright awful in Denver as of late.
The former Red Sox pitcher is 5-7 with a lofty 5.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP overall this season, and in actuality he does not have severe home vs. away splits, which in this case is not a good thing, as his 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at Coors are in line with his overall numbers. However those home numbers became considerably worse over his last two home starts, over which Morales allowed 13 earned runs on 17 hits plus six walks in just 8.1 innings!
High Pitch Count Last Time Out
Now, we actually like Ross quite a bit because we feel he is underrated with his 13-12 record, as he has a spiffy 2.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a very nice ratio of 184 strikeouts vs. 66 walks in 187 innings. He also owns the title of the “Most Unhittable Pitcher in Baseball This Season” due to his league-low contact rate.
However, one red flag is that he needed 115 pitches just to get through six innings Monday night despite allowing only one run and six hits in yet another Quality Start, as his eight strikeouts (and two walks) ran up his pitch count rather quickly. Those 115 pitches were the second most he has thrown in any outing this year, topped only by the 120 pitches he threw in a Complete Game shutout of the Cincinnati Reds on July 2nd for one of just two Complete Games in his career.
It would naturally be concerning coming off of a pitch count like Monday under normal circumstances, but it now becomes doubly concerning making his next start at mile-high altitude.
Rockies Rake at Coors
And facing the Rockies in Denver is no help either as they are batting .311 as a team and averaging a whopping 5.67 runs per game overall at Coors, and they are batting .315 and averaging a ridiculous 6.31 runs vs. right-handers here!
With all of this in mind look for a second ‘over’ in as many days in Colorado on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Padres, Rockies ‘over’ 9½ (-104)