Look to Stats & Betting Odds for Sunday's MLB Picks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, September 14, 2014 2:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 14, 2014 2:56 PM UTC

You can't win them all, and this handicapper is staying motivated hitting a rough patch of MLB betting. He has scrutinized the odds and has determined the best value bets to be made today. 

Swinger's 2014 MLB Record (26-28-1, -19.15 units)  *Picks are rated from 1 to 5 units*

Let's be honest here shall we?  There are times when you plunge into the treacherous MLB gambling waters and you can never seem to get your head above water. All that gasping, splashing and writhing with nothing to show for it except anxiety, frustration and exasperation. But then there are occasions when the water is calm, the sailing is smooth and the livin' is easy. 

Count me squarely in the camp of the former rather than the latter after my maximum five unit play on the Braves -145 in MLB odds flamed last Sunday as the Marlins (the freakin' Marlins, are ya kiddin' me?) blanked the Bravos 4-0. As if that wasn't enough even my longshot Cubbies got blasted by the Pirates by the score of 10-4 for three units. Yes, we added over 10 units to our MLB debt and are now down over 19 units on the season. 

After battling all season to recoup due to a lousy April and May, I am back deeply in the hole and unfortunately have taken some of you with me.  But now is not the time to wallow in self-pity.  As Jim Croce sang so long ago about that pool shootin' boy by the name of Willie McCoy, "Well, it may sound funny but I've come to get my money back." 


Athletics vs. Mariners (MAX PLAY)
I realize my max play flamed out last week but that was the first one of the year to go down. I'm coming right back with Jon Lester and the A's to cruise on by Chris Young and the Mariners. Young was torched by the A's a few weeks ago when he was knocked out of the box after lasting less than one inning and surrendering five earned runs en route to a 6-1 loss. Today he will be better because he couldn't get much worse but the results will be the same with southpaw Jon Lester chuckin' for Oakland.

Now I understand your concern for laying the lumber on the road with a team that has not exactly been lighting it up recently. The A's are 3-7 over their last 10 games while the Mariners are 6-4 during that same span. Seattle is also 10-8 (+3.3 units) versus Oakland  this season after being shaded 3-2 by the A's last night. Those stats favor the Mariners but Jon Lester versus Chris Young tips the balance of power hugely in Oakland's favor. Don't overthink this one, just make it one of your MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Athletics -150 in MLB odds for 5 units at Pinnacle

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Dodgers vs. Giants
It's not only hard to bet against Clayton Kershaw, it's financial suicide.  However, every dog has his day (do you see where I'm going here?) and this day belongs to the San Francisco Giants.  The public will spike the MLB odds on LA after the 17-0 humiliation the Giants suffered last night followed by ace Clayton Kershaw on the hill today.

But dammit, I see value here and let's not forget that San Francisco is hot on the heels of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.  We know that Big Blue has been an excellent road team this season registering a 44-29 mark but the Giants counter with a solid 42-34 record at home.

In addition Yusmeiro Petit, today's Giants starter, may not be Clayton Kershaw (who is?), but he looked brilliant in his last start when he baffled the D-Backs in a complete game 4-1 victory where he allowed only four hits on one earned run.  Take a look at the stats below.  Do the Giants really look like a +160 home dog to you?

Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 Sun. games.

Dodgers are 37-17 in their last 54 games as a favorite.

Under is 6-1-1 in Kershaw's last 8 road starts.

Giants are 14-3 in their last 17 home games.

Giants are 13-3 in their last 16 overall.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Giants +160 in MLB odds for 3 units at WilliamHill.com

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Yankees vs. Orioles
Yanks got the W last night, edging the AL East leading Orioles 3-2 after dropping the first two of this four-game set. The series concludes tonight in ESPN's Sunday Night MLB Game of the Week. The time to face facts is now because Baltimore has the second best record in all of Major League Baseball and they are one good friggin' team despite losing Chris Davis to suspension.

 Here are a few stats for this game:

New York is 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win.

Baltimore is 46-21 in their last 67 overall.

Baltimore is 41-19 in their last 60 games as a favorite.

Baltimore is 6-2 in Tillman's last 8 starts vs. the Yankees

Don't dismiss what the numbers are telling you.  The O's will win this one in fine fashion and next Sunday I will be talking about this game and how it got us back on track.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Orioles -125 in MLB odds for 3 units at 5Dimes.com.

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