Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
There could be a higher scoring game than the posted total indicates in the Queen City Wednesday night when Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (80-77, 39-40 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Daniel Corcino and the Cincinnati Reds (73-84, 41-35 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at a positive +106.
Brewers are Done
The Brewers are probably a bit demoralized right now as after leading the National League Central for a huge chunk of this season, their 3-1 loss in the series opener here last night left them five games behind the San Francisco Giants for the second wild card spot with five games remaining, meaning that Milwaukee’s magic number for being officially eliminated now stands at one. Moreover, at 80-77 the Brewers are not even assured of a winning season yet.
The Reds have been out of contention for quite some time this season after participating in the Wild Card Playoff Game last year, as they have been unable to overcome a slew of key injuries. One small bit of good news is that they have now been winning MLB picks in two straight games as they upset the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday Night Baseball before their victory here on Tuesday.
Lohse Fading Too
Lohse was his typically solid self for the Brew Crew for most of this season and he still stands at 12-9 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and a good ratio 135 strikeouts vs. 45 walks in 189.1 innings. However, for a pitcher that pitches to contact more often than not, he had been aided by a .275 BABIP, that is until his recent starts where his decline has mirrored that of his ball club.
Lohse has slipped to a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts, and he even allowed four home runs in 23.2 innings over those outings after allowing a total of 18 home runs over his first 26 starts. That has now raised his FIP to 4.05 and xFIP to 4.08 over the entire season, and if those figures hold it would mark his second straight season where both of those figures were over 4.00 and his ERA was under 4.00 (3.35 last season), which could make him an prime fade next season.
The rookie Corcino has been plagued by control problems in his first three appearances including two starts, which they have hurt his numbers as he has actually allowed just two runs in each of his two Major League starts. That does not figure to continue though if he does not improve on his six walks in just 14.1 innings so far at the big league level.
Unfortunately those control issues have not come out of the blue for Corcino as he has averaged at least 4.4 walks per nine innings in each of his last three seasons in the minors, including averaging 4.5 at Triple-A this year with 74 walks in 148.2 frames. That wildness has probably prevented an earlier call-up to the majors, as he does have a lively arm.
Granted he pitched well in his first Major League start vs. these Brewers on September 12th allowing two earned runs in six innings with just one walk, but we do not expect a carbon copy facing them again for the second time in a relatively short period.
Bullpens Could Help ‘over’
Finally, neither of these bullpens is anything special, which is always a concern with fairly low posted totals like this. The Milwaukee bullpen is ranked 20th in the majors with a 3.68 ERA while the Cincinnati pen has been even worse, ranking 25th with a 4.12 bullpen ERA.
All things considered, this total seems a bit light to us so go ‘over’ the total in Cincinnati on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Brewers, Reds ‘over’ 7½ (+106)