Look to Bet Runline & Total as MLB Odds Look a Little Chalky in the Bronx Tonight

Darin Zank

Monday, June 22, 2015 11:59 AM GMT

The Yankees are huge favorites for their series opener with the lowly Phillies Monday night; do we dare lay that kind of price? Or is there value to be found elsewhere on this game?

Phillies-Yankees Monday Betting Odds
It looks like Monday's game will go off with one of the largest lines of this MLB betting season. As of early Monday morning the best price we could find on New York and Michael Pineda was the -273 offered at Pinnacle, while Philly and Kevin Correia could be found getting +253 at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
New York just took two of three games from Detroit over the weekend, but missed the sweep by losing Sunday 12-4. Just before that the Yankees split four games with Miami, and going back to the beginning of this month they're 3-1-2 over their last six series, 12-6 over their last 18 games.

At 38-31 New York trails first-place Tampa Bay by a game in the AL East, and leads the American League wild-card race.

On the downtrodden side of this match-up Philly just dropped two of three games at home to St. Louis over the weekend, avoiding the sweep with a 9-2 victory Sunday. Just before that the Phillies lost three of four against Baltimore. In fact, Philly hasn't won a series since taking two of three from Cincinnati three weeks ago; since then the Phillies have lost 14 of their last 17 games.

At 24-47 Philly owns the worst record in baseball, which includes a ML-worst 7-28 mark on the road.

These teams haven't met since 2010, which must seem like a very long time ago for Phillies fans.

 

Monday's Starters
Pineda (8-3, 3.54) is seven-for-13 on quality starts this season, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he held Miami to one run and one hit through 6 2/3 innings, with nine strikeouts, and over his last four starts he's allowed nine earned runs through 23 2/3 innings. On the season Pineda has allowed 85 hits through 81 innings, with just 11 walks and 87 strikeouts; New York is 9-4 in Pineda's starts, with the OVERS going 8-3.

This will be Pineda's first start against Philadelphia since back in 2011, when he was with the Seattle Mariners.

Correia (0-1, 1.69) is 0-for-two on quality starts since joining the Philly rotation, in part because of a short leash. Ten days ago he tossed 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball against Pittsburgh, and last Wednesday, while he gave up six runs in five innings against Baltimore, only two of those runs were earned. Philly lost both of Correia's starts, but the loss to the Pirates came by a score of 1-0.

Last year, pitching for Minnesota, Correia started once against the Yankees, holding them to one run through six innings of a 3-1 Twins loss.

Must Read: In-Depth Analysis of Weather's Impact on Pitching

Monday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 12th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .321 team OBP, while Philadelphia ranks dead bleepin' last against righties with a .280 OBP.

 

Stadium Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 18-11 on the OVERS, averaging a healthy 9.9 runs per.

 

Phillies-Yanks Monday Free Picks
New York is an obvious choice here, but that price is a bit crazy. So we'll take the Yanks on the run line. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 6-3 or 7-2, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: New York -120 on the run line at 5Dimes and OVER 8.5 runs (+100) at Heritage