Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
After the game snuck ‘over’ last night, look for the teams to stay ‘under’ in the desert Sunday when southpaw Francisco Liriano and the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-51, 25-30 away) pay a visit to right-hander Trevor Cahill and the Arizona Diamondbacks (48-63, 22-35 home) in the final game of a four-game weekend series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 4:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted total at Bet365 is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.
Brutal Loss on the ‘under’ Saturday
We had the ‘under’ in the matchup between these teams last night and suffered just a brutal defeat as the game was tied 1-1 entering the eighth inning and ended with Pittsburgh winning 8-3! That Pirate victory combined with the Milwaukee Brewers losing to the Cardinals in St. Louis leaves the Bucs just 1½ games behind Milwaukee while in second place in the National League Central, the closest Pittsburgh has been to first all year.
The Diamondbacks continue to be disappointing MLB picks, especially here at home where they are just 22-35 for the worst home record in all of baseball. Arizona is in fourth place in the National League West 3½ games ahead of the last place Colorado Rockies, who now have the worst record in the National League after the Diamondbacks held that dubious distinction for much of the season.
Liriano in Raging Form
Liriano may not have good overall numbers this season, but he has recaptured the great form lately that he had for much of last season when he finished 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 163 strikeouts vs. 63 walks in 161 innings. Liriano is just 3-7 with a 3.97 ERA this season, but he has suddenly become unhittable while allowing a total of two earned runs over his last three starts!
He comes off of a start vs. the Giants in San Francisco on Tuesday where Liriano allowed one run on four hits with an impressive 11 strikeouts vs. one walk in seven innings. That means that he now has a miniscule 0.95 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts with 23 strikeouts vs. six walks in 19 innings.
Those three starts have come since Liriano came off of the Disabled List with an oblique strain that apparently impacted his early-season performance, so it would not be surprising if these three starts since his return are a precursor for the “good” Liriano being the pitcher we see the rest of the season. Also, he allowed two runs in six innings in his only career start vs. Arizona.
Cahill Better Since Re-Entering Rotation
Cahill was simply awful as a starting pitcher to begin the year as he was 0-4 with a 9.17 ERA in four starts, necessitating his demotion to the bullpen. He did pitch effectively out of the pen, so much so that the decision was made to reinstall Cahill in the starting rotation on July 18th, and he has been much better since then.
Cahill allowed three runs on seven hits in an unlucky 3-0 loss to the Cincinnati Reds in his last start Tuesday, meaning that he has now allowed exactly three runs in each of his three starts since becoming a starter again. Cahill is still an ugly 1-8 with a 5.59 ERA, but note how much that ERA has actually dropped since his atrocious four early-season starts.
He is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that is still batting just .239 vs. right-handed pitches on the road this season.
Southpaw is ‘under’ Friendly
Liriano has been a good ‘under’ pitcher this season at 10-6 with the ‘under’ now standing at a sparkling 8-1 in his last nine road starts! He has actually been unlucky away from Pittsburgh as he is only 2-4 away from home despite a 2.95 ERA.
Look for both pitchers to continue their good pitching as of late and for the teams to stay ‘under’ in Phoenix on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Pirates, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 8½ (-120)