Lineups Are Key for Our MLB Picks on Twins-Red Sox

Red Sox and Twins Bats Will Fly!

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, June 28, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 28, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper focuses on how the lineups match up with the starting pitchers in this game, as each starter tries to recover from season-long struggles on the mound.

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

Minnesota and Boston have both been playing .500 ball over their last 10 games coming into Tuesday night, and one of them will gain some ground on that after Wednesday’s affair at Fenway. Looking at the extended standings and one sees that the Red Sox have a +33-run differential, much different than the Twins -41, but with just 3 extra wins to show for it. The Red Sox are favored heavily for our MLB picks in this game and sit at -161 at Pinnacle on the MoneyLine, while the total has opened at 10.5 runs across the board.

The Twins put Adalberto Mejia on the mound in this game, a pitcher who greatly struggles with command and has put up a 5.32 BB/9 rate over the season. That along with his HR/FB% of 17.3% has his FIP sitting at 5.86, which would be nearly dead last among qualified starters if he had enough innings under his belt. Mejia is coming off of an interesting performance at Cleveland where he pitched 5 innings of shutout baseball and picked up a winning decision. However, Mejia actually walked more batters in that game than he struck out! It is something when a game in which you walk 5 batters nets you the best GSv2 (Game Score) of your year at 61. Needless to say, I don’t trust Adalberto Mejia to put together a decent performance without a significant amount of luck.

Starting opposite of Mejia is Rick Porcello, who is far removed from his 22-win season last year. Everything has seemingly trended in the wrong direction for him, and a combination of Boston’s defense getting worse and their offense putting up a run less per game this year has hurt him. There have been other differences as well, including the highest hard hit ball percentage of his career at 43.2%. That statistic is the worst mark in the MLB among qualified starters. Porcello is also 2nd worse in the MLB in BABIP at .371. Some of that can be attributed to Boston’s worse defense, but not all if the ball is getting blistered all of the time.

Both of these pitchers have weaknesses from one side of the plate. Porcello is giving up a terrible .330 BAA to right-handers on the year, and Mejia .290 against lefties. I see both managers being able to create lineups to take advantage of this, and the power bats of each team can be found on those sides of the plate. It all comes down to another slugfest like some of the games these teams had in May, so I’ll take the Over betting odds of 10.5 runs at Pinnacle as one of my MLB selections for Wednesday.

Free MLB Pick Over 10.5 Runs (-102)Best Line Offered at Pinnacle

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2017 MLB Record, 122-107-7, +4.49 Units, 1.66% ROI

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