Lincecum's Huge Money Line Fave at Home: Bet Run Total Instead

Steven Suarez

Sunday, June 21, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 21, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

The nightcap on this fine Sunday features two familiar foes for handicappers like yours truly to delight in: San Fran Giants and LA Dodgers. Who are we backing with our MLB picks tonight?

Odds Overview
The Dodgers aren't playing their best baseball, but they're still classified as big-time favorites for Sunday Night Baseball. They're priced out in the -180 to -190 range to grab the win this evening.

If you believe in the Giants in this spot, you'd be rewarded handsomely if they come through on the road. They can be backed at right around +160. Meanwhile, the total is trading at 7.5 runs at a lot of the major sportsbooks.


Los Angeles Dodgers (Anderson)
So far it's been a rough weekend for the Dodgers, as they've dropped each of the first two games. They've now lost five of their last six overall to drop to 38-31 for the season, which means the Giants are now just a half game back of the top spot in the division. Another loss tonight would see LA overtaken.

The MLB odds are certainly in the Dodgers' favor in this situation though, with the hosts set to send out lefty Brett Anderson. He's 2-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, and the 27-year-old has posted a 51:21 K:BB ratio over 76 innings of work. Anderson has yet to really get shelled this season, and he's posted a 3.32 ERA over seven starts inside Dodger Stadium.

The southpaw has already faced the Giants a few times in 2015, but hasn't exactly dominated. He's 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in three meetings so far, with San Francisco hitting .328 against him.


San Francisco Giants (Lincecum)
While the Dodgers are on a downward spiral, the Giants have been surging and find themselves within striking distance of the top spot in the NL West. They've won four of their last five and are at 38-32 for the season, and they'll be hoping Tim Lincecum can give them a quality outing and thus put them in a good position to sweep in LA this evening.

Lincecum has been getting the job done for San Francisco, going 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He hasn't exactly been efficient, recording a forgettable 57:35 K:BB ratio, and he hasn't pitched at least seven innings in close to a month (a five-start stretch). 

We've seen some extreme splits out of Lincecum in 2015, as he's been a lot more comfortable pitching at home. While he's gone 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA in seven starts at AT&T Park, he's been a mess out on the road, logging a 4.88 ERA (and allowing five homers) in six starts. Lincecum, however, has done well against LA, allowing just five earned runs over 17 innings spanning three meetings this season.


MLB Pick
Both Anderson and Lincecum have been solid this season, but we still don't really trust either one of these guys to bring it on a consistent basis.

We like this matchup offensively for both sides, as the Giants have some lefty mashers, starting of course with Buster Posey, who should be salivating at this chance to match up with Anderson; the catcher has been money against left-handed pitching throughout this career. San Francisco has already seen quite a bit of success against the left-hander in 2015 as well. Then there are the Dodgers, who have been one of the most potent teams against right-handers this season.

All in all, we don't see this game ending up in a pitcher's duel, and we wouldn't be surprised at all to see the offenses take over. With that being said, we're going to skip a play on the total and roll with the OVER as one of our MLB picks for Sunday.

MLB Pick: Giants-Dodgers Over 7½ (-110) at BetOnLine

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