Let The Squares Overdose on Chalk While We Work Our Run-Line Magic: Reds -1.5 (+120) Over Twins

Darin Zank

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 1:51 PM GMT

Cincy and Minnesota play a rubber match Wednesday afternoon at GABP. Johnny Cueto is a big favorite, again, but where does the value on today's line reside?

Twins-Reds Wednesday Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday AM the best price we could find on Cincy and Johnny Cueto was the -178 offered at YouWager, while Minnesota and Trevor May could be found getting +179 at 5Dimes. And most books were listing their total on today's game at seven runs.

 

The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, Cincy taking Monday's opener 11-7, Minnesota winning Tuesday 8-5. Both those games played OVER the totals.

Just before this series the Twins dropped two of three games to Milwaukee, so they're just 4-6 over their last 10 games. At 41-36 Minnesota trails first-place Kansas City by 4.5 games in the AL Central, but still also owns the second American League wild-card spot at the moment.

The Reds, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five games; at 35-41 Cincinnati sits 16 games off the pace in the NL Central, and six games off the pace in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

 

Wednesday's Starting Pitching Match-Up
Cueto (4-5, 2.98) is 9/14 on quality starts this season, although only one for his last three. Last Friday he held the Mets to two runs through six innings, but over his last three starts he's allowed nine runs through 18 1/3 innings. On the season JC has allowed just 72 hits through 97 innings, walked 19 and whiffed 92; Cincy is 8-6 in Cueto's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 7-5 margin.

This will be Cueto's first start against Minnesota since the last time these teams met, back in 2012.

May (4-6, 4.62) is just 5/14 on quality starts this year, and coming off a disastrous effort last Friday in which he got bombed for six runs while getting just one out against Milwaukee. However, over his previous four starts he allowed just five runs through 24 innings. On the season May has allowed 86 hits in 74 innings, although his K/BB ratio is excellent, at 65/15. The Twins are 6-8 in May's starts, with the totals leaning OVER 8-6.

This will be May's first-ever start against Cincinnati, which could give him an edge, for at least the first couple of times through the lineup.

Get your early betting on! Check out the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox MLB pick here

Wednesday's Batting Splits
Cincinnati ranks 17th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .315 team on-base percentage, while Minnesota ranks 25th against righties with a .299 OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Great American Ball Park this season are 20-13 on the OVERS, averaging 9.2 runs per.

 

Injury Update
Cincy IF Brandon Phillips has missed recent action with injuries to his hands, and is questionable for today.

 

Twins-Reds Free Picks
Cincy owns an advantage in the pitching match-up, and a slight edge with the sticks. But today's price is a bit steep, so we'll take a chance with the Reds on the run line. Also, both these bullpens rank in the bottom third in ERA, and with a little help from them this game should play OVER.

MLB Picks: Cincy +126 on the run line at Pinnacle and OVER seven runs (-110) at Heritage