Let The Squares Overdose on Chalk While We Work Our Run-Line Magic: Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) Over Indians

Darin Zank

Monday, August 31, 2015 1:45 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 31, 2015 1:45 PM UTC

Toronto & David Price are a large favorite vs. Cleveland tonight, but the Tribe are playing decent ball & throwing a good pitcher themselves in Danny Salazar. How are we betting this game?

Indians-Blue Jays Monday Odds
As of this writing the best price we could find on Toronto and David Price was the -208 at BetOnline, while Cleveland and Danny Salazar were getting +196 at Heritage. The Blue Jays could also be found “getting” +100 while giving the run and a half on the run line at several shops.


The Situation
Toronto just swept three games from Detroit over the weekend, capped off by a 9-2 victory Sunday. So the Jays have won three series in a row, and 10 of their last 12 games.

At 74-56 Toronto leads the AL East by a game and a half over second-place New York.

Cleveland, meanwhile, just swept three games at home from the Angels over the weekend, also winning Sunday by a score of 9-2. So the Indians have won three series in a row, five games in a row and eight of their last 10.

At 63-66 Cleveland trails Texas by five games in the race for the second American League wild-card spot, although time is quickly running out.

This is the second series between these teams this season; back in early May they split four games at the Prog, with three of those games playing OVER.


Monday's Mound Match-Up
Price (13-4, 2.42) is 18-for-26 on quality starts this season, five-for-five since joining Toronto in that trade with Detroit. Last Wednesday he held Texas to two runs through six innings, and over his last five starts he's allowed just eight runs through 36 1/3 innings. For the season the big lefty has allowed 161 hits through 182 innings, walked 36 and struck out 179 for a strikeouts/walks ratio of almost 6/1

Toronto is 4-1 in Price's starts, with the UNDERS going 3-2.

Price has already started against Cleveland three times this season, all while with Detroit, giving up just one earned run through 20 1/3 innings; the Tigers won all three of those games.

Salazar (11-7, 3.30), who missed his last turn in the rotation due to an illness, is 13-for-23 on quality starts, and five for his last six. Nine days ago he gave up five runs – four earned – in less than five innings against the Yankees, but over his five previous starts he held foes to five ER through 35 innings. On the season Salazar has allowed 115 hits through 144 innings, walked 41 and struck out 162 for a K/BB ratio of 4/1.

The Indians, three games under .500 overall, are 14-9 in Salazar's starts, with the totals going 12-11.

In two career starts against Toronto, the most recent coming in May of last season, Salazar allowed three runs through 10 innings; Cleveland split those two games, while both games played UNDER.


Monday's Batting Splits
Cleveland ranks 11th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .261 team batting average, seventh with a .330 team on-base percentage but only 21st with a .382 team slugging percentage.

Toronto, on the other hand, ranks ninth against right-handed pitching with a .260 team BA, No. 1 with a .328 team OBP and second with a .445 slugging percentage.

We'll give the Jays the edge with the sticks.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Rogers Centre are 38-24 on the UNDERS this season, even though they’re averaging 9.2 runs per. Apparently MLB oddsmakers have been posting some large totals on Jays home games.


Indians-Jays Monday Free Picks
Price gets the check mark in the pitching match-up, although not by a whole lot, and the Toronto bats are in bopping mode, scoring at least nine runs in six of their last nine games. So we like the Jays with our MLB pick today with a run line play on them at home. Also, both these bullpens rank in the top third in baseball at the moment, so we're thinking UNDER.


Picks: Toronto on the run line and UNDER 7.5 runs (-110) at BookMaker[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":753037, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,43,227,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here