Lester & Harvey to Temper Bats in New York, Play Under as the Game 1 MLB Pick

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 17, 2015 6:15 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015 6:15 PM GMT

With the two teams now set for the National League championship series I think were in to see a strong pitching performance between Jon Lester and Matt Harvey.

MLB Odds
MLB odds makers have set this line at 6.5 which seems about right in my estimation. There is a little bit higher juice on backing the under but you can still get pretty good odds at Pinnacle Sports -115. For my MLB pick of the day I'm going to take under this total of 6.5 and look for a low-scoring affair.

 

Chicago Cubs
Jon Lester takes the mound for the Cubs and comes in with a 3.34 ERA, 1.12 whip, 207 strikeouts, and an 11-12 record. He was solid in his one apparent in the National League division series allowing three earned runs off of just five hits in just over seven innings. In two games against the Mets this season he has only allowed three earned runs off of 10 hits in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA and the Mets hitting just .204 against him. He is a playoff hardened pitcher and I look for him to perform well tonight.

On the season the Cubs ranked 16th in runs scored per game at 4.27, 15th in OPS at .722, and 28th in batting average hitting .244 as a team. In the last three games of the playoffs they have been on fire at the plate scoring six, eight, and then six again against a really good pitching staff in the Cardinals. They have been really impressive knocking the ball out of the park. Still, I think they have a tough matchup tonight and I don't expect for them to be as successful as they have been those past three games.

 

New York Mets
Matt Harvey gets the start for New York and comes in with a 2.71 ERA, 1.02 whip, 188 strikeouts, and a 13-8 record. He pitched decent against the Dodgers in the division series allowing just two earned runs off a seven hits in five innings. In his one start against the Cubs this season he was lights out allowing just three hits in seven innings with no earned runs. Although this Cubs team is swinging the bat well I expect Harvey to have a quality start. At home he has a stellar 2.23 ERA and batters hitting just .216 against him.

On the season the Mets ranked 17th in runs scored per game at 4.22, 20th in OPS at .710, and 29th in batting average hitting .243 as a team. Except for game three versus the Dodgers they did do a lot at the plate, but they also had some really difficult matchups facing Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Still, they found a way to manufacture enough runs to take the series. After a big celebration the other night I think it's going to be tough for them to travel back home and have some good quality at-bats against a solid starter in Lester.

This is a surprising but not so surprising matchup we have for the National League championship series. Too strong pitching staffs take the stage and I don't expect a lot of runs in total for the entire series. Expect both starters to pitch well tonight and for the relief pitching to be steady. For one of your MLB picks I suggest backing the under in this spot, should be an exciting series.

MLB Pick: Under 6.5 at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2950413, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here