Lean Towards the Low Side of the Total in Blue Jay vs. Astros

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, August 2, 2014 4:31 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 2, 2014 4:31 PM UTC

We’ll examine the American League affair between the Blue Jays and Astros on Saturday. We invite you to read this MLB handicapping breakdown of this contest. This MLB betting article is concluded with a free pick on one of the sides.

An American League Tilt in Houston
The Astros host the Blue Jays tonight in Houston with a scheduled start time of 7:10 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Blue Jays are a -130 money line road favorite and the posted total is 8.0. Toronto has gone 3-2 versus Houston during the 2014 season, and 3 of those 5-games when over the total.

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The Starting Pitchers
The Blue Jays will go with veteran knuckleball specialist R.A. Dickey on the mound. Dickey has been superb in his last 4-starts on the road with a 1.61 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s also displayed very good form over his last 3-starts, posting a 1.00 WHIP, and better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. On a negative note, Dickey has struggled in 2-starts versus the Astros since the start of last season. In those outings he’s posted large 6.92 ERA and both games went over the total.

The Astros counter with southpaw Brett Oberholtzer. The Houston hurler has been solid in going 3-0 against the money in his last 3-starts with a stellar 3.15 ERA. Oberholtzer has been very good in his last 4-starts at home posting a shining 2.39 ERA in those outings. He’s seen 5 of his last 6-starts go under the total while compiling a 3.18 ERA.

Check Out Our Betting Guru's MLB Pitching Report for August 2nd!

Temporarily Cooled Off
The Blue Jays had their 6-game winning streak snapped last night in a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Astros. The loss was just their 3rd in the last 14-games. Today will be the 9th of a grueling 10-game in 10-day road trip that’s seen them go 6-2 thus far. The Blue Jays have seen 18 of 26-games go under the total this season after scoring 2-runs or less in their previous outing. Toronto has also seen 18 of 25-games go under the total in 2014 when facing an AL West opponent.


Improved but Lousy
The Astros have shown some marked improvement from a team that finished last season with a pathetic 51-111 record. However, at 45-65 on the year that hardly qualifies them as a good team. Tonight will be their 9th of a 10-game home stand in which they’ve gone 3-5 thus far.


Tonight’s Home Plate Umpire
The man behind the dish tonight will be Jordan Baker. Since the start of the 2012 season Baker has seen only 35.2% of his 68-games go over the total when he’s in charge of balls and strikes.


Final Analysis
I have a small lean toward this one staying on the low side of the number. We’ll definitely be in the minority with this selection, but nevertheless, I feel it’s the right choice.

Free MLB Pick: Toronto/Houston to go under the total of 8.0

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