Lean Towards Giants Money Line as Your MLB Pick Against Padres

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 1:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2015 1:25 PM UTC

Hosting some Giants fans at the house so I am obliged to take the Giants in this one. Good thing they actually have the best chance of winning then for your Tuesday MLB Pick!

Gladly getting a reprieve from the underachieving Mariners tonight, as they managed to snap defeat from the jaws of victory last night in Detroit to fall 8 games under .500 and lose on the money line. Instead, let’s cover another underwhelming team in the San Diego Padres. Picked in the futures market to win 84 games or more, the Padres find themselves at 43-49 and nine games back of the Dodgers in the NL West – and that’s after a 4 game winning streak. This is not surprising to me, as one of my sabermetrics projections had the Padres winning under 76 games, a bet I took back in March (and waiting to cash to make up for these damn Mariners). In the same light, the Giants are performing better than expectations and find themselves six games over .500 with a 49-43 record. The futures models had them winning around 83 games, so the Giants have done a good job with the offense they have left after the loss of Pablo Sandoval. They’ve won six straight to get back in the NL West are three games back of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

This game features surprising San Francisco Giants starter, Chris Heston, who has been solid since joining the Giants rotation on April 8th. Not penciled into the rotation to begin the year, Heston could be the reason the Giants are still in contention, with a 9-5 record, 3.39 ERA, 89/30 K/BB ratio, and 1.20 WHIP. He even threw a no hitter on June 9th! Not bad for someone who only pitched 5.1 innings last year. Heston has even been good against the Padres. In his last game against them on June 25th, Heston threw seven innings of two run ball while only giving up 5 hits. Heston hasn’t given up more than 3 ER since that June 9th no hitter and the San Diego offense doesn’t instill confidence in breaking that streak.

Pitching for the Padres is Cuban Odrisamer Despaigne (OD). OD should probably visit the newly minted Cuban embassy and claim asylum, because he has been the victim of incredibly low run support this year. Although he blew up his ERA in two starts in May that inflated that stat from 2.95 to 6.75, OD has been a serviceable starter since then. His statistics against the Giants are more than adequate as well as OD has posted a 0.91 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and .133 BAA in 4 starts against the Giants en route to a 2-0 record. All told though, Despaigne hasn’t won a decision since May 31st at home versus Pittsburgh, a span of six starts.

With a rather even pitching matchup on paper except for win-loss record, the visiting Giants opened as the money line favorite in this game at -120 at Pinnacle. The O/U total opened at 7 runs at multiple books. What line movement there is has been in favor of the Giants, with the line already moving to -130 at books such as 5Dimes.

The MLB Pick
With an even pitching matchup… ok, slight lean towards the Giants, I am making my MLB pick on the offense I trust most to get the job done. At the moment that is the Giants with the streaking Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt. I’m taking the Giants early in this one, before the juice gets out of hand towards the favorites for my Tuesday MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Giants -124 at Heritage

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