Lay the Runs with Cardinals at Busch Stadium Over Brewers for Your MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 4:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2015 4:35 PM UTC

It's the second game out of three, between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals tonight. Follow along as I peruse the MLB odds and share my MLB pick for you to win big! 

Milwaukee Brewers (Cravy) at St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) (-1 ½ R/+110) 8:15 ET
Milwaukee and St. Louis meet at Busch Stadium tonight in the 2nd of this 3-game set, with the Cardinals listed as the favorites on the MLB odds.  St. Louis is 20-7 at home and has lost consecutive games on this field only once to Detroit on May 16th.  Please do not confuse the Milwaukee Brewers with the Detroit Tigers.  As a result, it is highly unlikely that the Cards lose consecutive games to the Brewers on Tuesday night.  On Monday, the St. Louis bats remained cold in a 1-0 shutout at the hands of Milwaukee.  In the last 5 games, St. Louis has scored just 11 runs, going 6-37 with RISP.  Do not expect that to continue tonight against sacrificial lamb, Cravy, and a Milwaukee bullpen that has worked 17 1/3 IP in the last 2 days.  

In a soon to be published article, entitled OPS Index Buy and Sell Ratings, I note that the dichotomous records of St. Louis and Milwaukee (first and worst in MLB) are completely supported by their combined OPS batting and pitching index.  In other words, the records are justified based on their performance.  

Milwaukee continues to struggle despite consecutive victories over Arizona in 17 IP and St. Louis last night.  The .771 pitching index is worst in MLB and the .664 OPS batting index is 3rd worse in the league.  Tonight, they send fill-in starter, Cravy, to the mound.  He has been recalled from Triple A to make this start because the Brewers were forced to use Garza in the 17 inning win vs. Arizona.  With Fiers moved up a day to start on Monday, Cravy takes the mound tonight.  In 9 starts of Triple A ball, Cravy was 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA.  Those numbers clearly imply he is not yet ready for primetime ball.  

Not only is St. Louis the best team in MLB, they are also the most resilient.  Over the last 3 seasons, St. Louis is 106-63 following a defeat, including 11-6 in that role this season.  Their home field record of 20-7 remains among the best in baseball.  Tonight’s starter, Lynn, has done consistent work all season with a 3.41 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  On April 26th, Lynn worked 5 innings allowing 6 runs on 10 hits in a 6-3 loss at Milwaukee.  He will get his revenge tonight based on the fact that in 7 previous starts vs. Milwaukee, he worked 42 1/3 IP with a 1.49 ERA and 47 Ks.  That includes 4 starts from this mound, where Lynn has a 1.86 ERA vs. Milwaukee.  

Run line players take note, 24 of 33 St. Louis wins have come by 2 or more runs, just slightly better than the MLB average of 68.7% this season through May 31st.  But the real number to focus on is the fact that 28 of 34 Milwaukee losses (82%) have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the runs with St. Louis and take the small price with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take St. Louis Cardinals 

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