Late MLB Picks: Capper Predicts High Scoring In Giants & Cards Game

Kevin Stott

Sunday, June 5, 2016 11:54 AM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 5, 2016 11:54 AM UTC

The St. Louis Cardinals have been surprisingly disappointing at Home at Busch Stadium this season but the Redbirds can take this series against Jake Peavy. Free MLB Pick inside.

San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals (29-27) and starting RHP Carlos Martínez (5-5, 3.69 ERA, 50 K’s) face the San Francisco Giants (35-23) and veteran RHP Jake Peavy (2-5, 6.34 ERA, 43 K’s) in this nationally televised Game 3 of this 3-game series on Sunday night from Busch Stadium in St. Louis. MLB odds makers have opened up Martínez and the Cardinals as -141 (Heritage) Home favorites, the game’s Total (Runs) ranging from 8 (Over -118, Heritage) to 8½ (Under -120, Bookmaker) with the Run Line odds for St. Louis -1½ are +145 and for the Giants +1½ are -165 (Heritage). On Saturday night, the Cardinals rallied from a 4-1 deficit to win Game 2 of the series, 7-4 as the Redbirds exploded for 6 Runs in the 5th and 6th Innings and blasted four Home Runs. San Francisco won Game 1 on Friday, 5-1.


San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants (10/1 to win World Series, William Hill) were at 16/1 to win the World Series not too long ago so this streak of 9 Wins in their L13 games has inclined some bettors to go to betting windows and plop Futures Book bets down on a team which has rightfully gained the reputation of one which strangely only wins MLB championships in even-numbered years, as San Francisco (13/2 to win NL, Paddy Power) has done in 2010, 2012 and 2014. So the theoretical pressure is on Manager Bruce Bochy and the Giants, although it’s pretty much on all MLB clubs and Managers all the time anyway. Recognize. In the tough Loss to St. Louis on Saturday night, San Francisco and Bochy put out a Starting Lineup of: CF Denard Span, 2B Joe Panik, 3B Matt Duffy, C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, SS Brandon Crawford, LF Gregor Blanco, RF Jarrett Parker with Offseason-acquisition Jeff Samardzija getting the pill for Los Gigantes (7-4 L11). Middle Infielders Panik (2-3, 2 Doubles) and Crawford (2-3, Double Triple) were the only San Francisco (19-12 Road, 20-8 L28 vs RHP Starter) hitters with multiple Hits while the Giants Starter Samardzija (3.33 ERA) allowed 9 Hits and 6 Earned Runs after rocky Bottom halves of the 5th (4 ER) and 6th Innings (2 ER).


St. Louis Cardinals
The thing that really sticks out right now about the St. Louis Cardinals (50/1 to win World Series, BetVictor) is how poorly they’ve performed at Home at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, going 14-16 so far in the Gateway City this season after usually dominating at Home (55-26 in 2015, 51-30 in 2014, 54-27 in 2013). But Saturday night’s come-from behind 7-4 victory has to give Manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals (22/1 to Win NL, BetVictor) some much-needed Confidence after risking losing the series and falling to the .500 mark on the Regular Season with a Loss. But St. Louis (294 RF-246 RA) got Home Runs from Aledmys Díaz, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Adams and Brandon Moss to chase Jeff Samardzija and snap a modest 2-game Losing Streak. Matheny’s Starting Lineup Card on Saturday read: 3B Matt Carpenter, SS Aledmys Díaz, LF Matt Holliday, CF Stephen Piscotty, 1B Matt Adams, RF Brandon Moss, C Yadier Molina, 2B Kolten Wong with Michael Wacha getting the start for the hosts. Díaz (2-4, HR, 3 RBI), Moss (2-3, HR) and starter Wacha (2-2) of all people had multiple Hit games for perennial NL Central powerhouse St. Louis (Over 6-4 L10).


Pitchers Report Card
History shows Jake Peavy allowing minimal Earned Runs in Starts at Busch Stadium (2,2, 1 L3) but that was in 4, 4 and 7 IP respectively and those deceiving numbers were carved on years when the right-hander was a much better Pitcher. Now, instead of the adjective “Ace,” the 35-year-old Mobile, Alabama native usually gets the adjective “Old” and has to worry about staying up in the San Francisco Rotation after seemingly getting pounded start after start. And his numbers tell that tale: A 2-5 Record with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP; a 3-6 record over the L7 years against the Redbirds with a 4.30 ERA and a WHIP of 1.394. So you can see why the odds (both Side and Total) are the way they are here and if there’s one Giants Starter opposing hitters (and Managers) want to see coming up for San Francisco, it’s Peavy right now although he did allow just 1 Hit in 7 IP at Atlanta in his last Start on May 31. But with the Weather warming up (TWC Sunday Night Forecast: Clear, 63°) so much and the baseball carrying in Busch Stadium so much that the Cardinals cracked four Home Runs last night—after being shut out for 4 Innings—the thought here is that the Over looks nice with both teams very capable of putting up 5 Runs in this spot. And with this being the Rubber game of the series, expect both skippers to go for it and use their talented Benches and able Pinch Hitters.

For Saint Louis, RHP Carlos Martínez gets the baseball and after getting rocked in his previous outings (19 Runs in 25 IP), the young northpaw hurled 8 shutout Innings against the Brewers on Monday to snap a (personal) 5-game Losing Streak. Gregor Blanco is 4-for-4 (1.000) against Martínez and Crawford and Posey each have a Hit in 4 ABs against him, but most of this Frisco Roster hasn’t seen too much of, or any of Martínez, who will be facing a much tougher lineup than he did at Milwaukee. And most of the Cardinals haven’t seen much of Peavy, with Moss, Molina and Holliday hitless in a combined 8 ABs against the former Padres and White Sox Pitcher, so the first time around might be advantage Starting Pitchers on Sunday night but the 2nd, 3rd and 4th times around should favor the Hitters, especially the left-handed hitting ones with two Righties going here.


Trends, Final Wrap-Up and Totals Pick
Trends supporting San Francisco in this spot: The Giants are 20-7 in their L27 overall and 20-7 in their L27 on Grass, 9-3 in their L12 Road games against a team with a losing Home Record, 7-1 the L8 Game 3’s of a series and 4-1 in their L5 Sunday games. The Giants are a dismal 6-20 the L26 on the Road against teams with a winning record. But San Francisco is just 5-12 in Peavy’s L12 Road starts and the Cardinals grabbed the series Momentum with those 5th- and 6th-inning rallies on Saturday. Some pro-Cardinals Trends: St. Louis is 150-73 its L223 games against a RHP at Busch Stadium, where it mists Budweiser, and 11-5 in its L16 Game 3’s of a series, but the Redbirds are just 1-4 their L5 Sunday games, 1-4 their L5 at Home and 1-5 in Martinezes L6 starts, 0-4 the L4 at Home and 0-4 against teams with a Winning Record. So, the numbers say these Pitchers could get hit and the Over is 11-8 in the L19 meetings in this series after Saturday’s game went Over (8, Pinnacle). Some other Trends backing the Over: The Over is 10-2-1 in the L13 Cardinals Game 3’s, 5-0-1 in the L6 Martinez Starts vs NL West teams, 4-1-1 in his L6 Starts of 5 Days of Rest and 6-2 in the L8 Cardinals Home games. The Under is 18-7-1 in the L25 Giants games overall and also 18-7-1 the L26 played on Grass (Busch Stadium) and 15-6 in Peavy’s L21 Starts of 4 Days Rest. Let's make our MLB pick now!

Here, it seems there are just too many bats and both teams will be confident when stepping to the Plate in the near-perfect conditions in a game both teams need to win to take the series. The Giants are having the better season (for now), but St. Louis is at Home and Matheny and his band of warriors know the importance of this game both for the Win and for this team’s collective Heads. The Cardinals aren’t used to losing at Home and the taste of being 11 games behind their heated rivals, the Chicago Cubs (39-15, 9-1 L10), in the division to start the day has to to sting, but this is a gritty team that never gives up and makes the most out of its Roster, so expecting the Cardinals to play better from June 5 on makes more sense than expecting this bunch to continue to hover around the dreaded .500 mark. They’re just too good at the game of Baseball. This one may be a shootout in a MLB sense, with guys like Posey, Belt, Hunter Pence, Duffy, Adams, Moss and Piscotty all very capable of going deep against the opponent’s scheduled starters. And the Humidity (70%) always helps ball carry more in The Lou when the Summer weather comes in. Mild lean to the Over here, and the only 8 (Over -118, Saturday night) is at Antiguan Offshore and Online sportsbook Heritage, while everyone else Offshore and here in scorching (107°) Las Vegas are hanging 8½’s as the Total for this game.

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Predicted Final Score: Cardinals 5  Giants 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
MLB Record This Week: 0-2 — Season to date: 14-13-1

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