Kershaw & Dodgers To Rain Down On Marlins For This MLB 'Over' Pick

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 1:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 26, 2016 1:12 PM UTC

Clayton Kershaw is heavy chalk as L.A. hosts the Marlins in the second of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium tonight. Find out what's the best MLB pick for this matchup!

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins (7-11) – Tom Koehler (1-2, 4.80 ERA)
Former Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly got the better of his previous employer last night 3-2, his first game back in L.A. since being fired form his post following last season. Wei-Yin Chen (1-1) put in a quality effort, yielding only two earned runs in 6.2 innings for his first win of the year. Tom Koehler (1-2) takes the pill for tonight’s meeting, the second of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium, where he is winless in three prior starts.

Miami is 2-3 overall in Koehler’s five career starts against L.A., allowing 4.2 runs on 8.2 hits per game. The right-hander, who relies on an average four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve, has not had too much success against the Dodger’s current roster. They are batting .324 (22/68) with a .924 OPS. Koehler has notched just 13 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances.

Offensively, the Marlins enter scoring 3.67 runs per game. Their 9.2 hits per contest is fifth best in the bigs, but struggle to find timely hits. The lineup leaves 3.8 runners in scoring position per night, and it has hit into the second most double plays on the season. Moreover, the long ball is virtually absent. Miami’s 1.7 percent home run rate is dismal.

Giancarlo Stanton, though, has slugged seven homers in 16 games at Dodger Stadium. His .746 career slugging percentage is highest of any player in MLB history at the historic ballpark with 50 at-bats or more. The 6-6 rightfielder has launched two in his last two games, for five total on the year. Stanton is heating up. Watch out and be aware of the changes in the MLB odds.


Los Angeles Dodgers (12-8) – Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 1.50 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (2-0) gets the nod for manager Dave Roberts. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is aiming for the honor again after a torrid April. Kershaw has whiffed 30, walked three, and allowed 20 hits in 30 frames through his first four starts. He’s 5-2 in eight career outings against the Marlins.

Miami hitters have so-so success against the southpaw, the current roster hitting .269 combined. Christian Yelich has three hits in six at-bats, but has struckout three times as well. Stanton, batting .267 with four hits in 15 plate appearances, has the lone homerun out of the bunch in 78 total at-bats.

The Dodgers rank in the top 10 of many offensive categories entering the game, including runs scored per game (4.8), hits (9.0), BABIP (.313) and RBIs (4.6). Like the Marlins, the lineup is having difficulty stroking the longball with 0.75 hit per outing.

The front office will likely pull Carl Crawford off the disabled list (back) for tonight’s contest.


Final Analysis
It is tough to find value in a mismatch like this, unless one believes Kershaw is not at his best tonight. He has not flashed any warning signs that a bad outing is pending, so fading him at home is out of the question for us. Value might exist in the total. The OVER is 22-5-3 in the last 30 meetings between these two at Dodger Stadium. L.A. destroyed right-handed pitching at home last season, particularly non-elite starters. The Dodgers scored 5.0 runs on 9.0 hits versus those with a 4.00 ERA or higher. Dodgers 'over'  total is the MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 6.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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