June 29 MLB Free Pick: Brewers Avoid Sweep at Hands of the Reds

brewers reds

Willie Bee

Thursday, June 29, 2017 12:28 PM GMT

Milwaukee has missed a golden opportunity to stretch its lead in the NL Central by dropping two in Cincinnati, but the Brewers are favored on the MLB odds to avoid being swept Thursday.

MLB Season Record: 40-44 (-4.14)

Things have not gone well the past six weeks or so for Bryan Price and the Cincinnati Reds, who have lost 29 of their last 43 games. The Reds can gain at least a small amount of satisfaction Thursday at home if they can complete a sweep of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee is a small favorite around -110 with a double-digit total.

Joey Votto’s 21st homer of the year proved the winning stroke as the Reds took Tuesday’s opener, 8-6. Adam Duvall’s infield single in the eighth Wednesday plated the decisive run in Cincinnati’s 4-3 triumph, a game Bookmaker also closed Milwaukee as short chalk. The Brewers had won six of the first seven vs. the Reds before the series started and totals now stand 3-3 O/U on this field after they split in a 4-game set in Cincinnati back in mid-April.

 

Bailey Off Disastrous Season Debut

Three quality starts and a couple of so-so outings by Jimmy Nelson in June have the Brewers 3-2 behind their righthander this month but just 7-8 overall in 2017. He’s coming off a losing decision in Atlanta (5 IP, 4 ER) in a game that closed as a pick ‘em on the MLB odds, leaving Milwaukee 3-3 when the former Alabama standout pitches away from home. One of the wins was a gem on this mound back in April, Nelson working seven and allowing a run without a walk and five Ks. He had a 7.20 ERA in his previous five assignments here.

To say Homer Bailey’s season debut last Saturday in the nation’s capital didn’t go well would be a huge understatement. Working his way back from yet another elbow surgery, Bailey didn’t make it through the second and was charged with eight runs while burning 61 pitches just to get the five outs he did. Reds relievers didn’t do much better in Washington’s 18-3 massacre, and we can count on the bullpen being needed for at least 3-4 frames tonight with Bailey likely limited to 80 tosses max. This is just his 10th start since the beginning of 2015, two of the previous nine coming against the Brewers with the Reds halving those (11.2 IP, 2 ER).

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

Crew chief Fieldin Culbreth lines up to call balls and strikes in the series finale, the 25-year vet a level 7-7 O/U in 2017. His previous five plate assignments at Great American Ball Park have run 4-1 in favor of the ‘over,’ Cincinnati winning three of the five.

Cloudy skies, muggy temps in the upper 80s and a 10-15 mph SSW wind (in from left-center) is the forecast tonight in Porkopolis. I’m playing the Brewers to avoid Cincy’s brooms for my free baseball pick.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers -110Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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