July 3 Odds: Offense Expected To Dominate in Orioles-Brewers Opener

Jay Pryce

Monday, July 3, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 3, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

The Orioles and Brewers clash in the opener of a three-game interleague series on Monday afternoon (2:10 ET). Oddsmakers expect a runfest. We do too. Get your pick and betting preview here.

Baltimore Orioles (40-41)

The Orioles begin a seven game road trip Monday at Milwaukee and then Minnesota before breaking for the All-Star weekend. Fans long for a strong finish. The last couple of months have been rough. After jumping out to a 22-10 start, the team is 18-31 since May 10. Injuries are an issue with first baseman Chris Davis, starter Chris Tillman, closer Zach Britton, and shortstop J.J. Hardy each missing significant playing time. The biggest area of concern is pitching. Manager Buck Showalter's starting rotation owns a 6.75 ERA over the last 50 days and the staff tied a 93-year-old MLB record of allowing 5+ runs in 20 straight contests during this span. Yikes.

Wade Miley takes the pill in the Brewers opener. The southpaw is 3-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 16 starts in 2017. Miley has played his part in the rotation's recent decline. He has failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last five outings, gifting 22 earned runs on 34 hits in 20.2 frames.

Since joining up with Baltimore at the trade deadline last season, the O's are 6-7 overall when Miley commands the hill on the road. The contests have been runfests overall, averaging 11.4 runs per tilt. Miley and the bullpen allow 6.31 runs on 11.62 hits per game. In eight road outing this season, the southpaw owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Nine of Miley's 12 home runs allowed have come away from Camden Yards.


Milwaukee Brewers (44-40)

Many expected the NL Central to be one of baseball's best divisions prior to the season. Instead, it's one of the worst. The Brewers lead the pack with a 2-game advantage over the World Series champion Cubs, but own just a +16 run differential. Every other division leader is +59 or higher.

Brent Suter will get the fill-in start for the injured Chase Anderson on Monday. Anderson, who has been the Brewers best starter this season, strained his left oblique on a swing and miss vs. the Reds last week. Milwaukee is 0-3 in Suter's three career spot starts. In 2017, the left-hander has allowed 7 earned runs on 16 hits in 15.0 innings over eight appearances (one start).

In the last calendar month, the Brewers are 6-12 if scoring 5 runs or fewer in a contest. The bats are a bit cold, crossing the plate just 4.55 times per contest. Slugger Eric Thames is really struggling with a .180 batting average in this span.

Here's a trend to consider: the 'over' is 19-6 when the Brew Crew hosts the AL East in interleague play during the last decade. The total has closed at 9 runs or higher in 10 games. The average score is 12.6 runs in this situation. The 'over' has hit in all but one.


Final Analysis

Miley and the bullpen have allowed double-digit hits in all but three of 13 road starts in the last calendar year. Couple that with Milwaukee's spot starter, and there should be plenty of runs at Miller Park on Monday. The 'over' is 21-8 this season when the Brewers send a starter other than Anderson or Jimmy Nelson to the hill in Milwaukee.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 10Best Line Offered: Heritage

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