July 3 MLB Mining the Diamond: Dynamite in DC & Somethin’ Brewin at Coors Field

Swinging Johnson

Monday, July 3, 2017 2:59 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 3, 2017 2:59 PM UTC

Mining the Diamond begins the week anew and has scoured the board for the best pitching matchups, hottest trends and the most favorable MLB odds to deliver two premium plays for Monday.

Mets (38-43, -12.5 Units) At Nationals (48-34, -2.1 Units)
  • Washington is 34-14 (+15.9 Units) in night games this season.
  • Washington is 18-9 (+6.0 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
  • Washington’s starter Stephen Strasburg’s team record is 18-3 (+11.3 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.
  • New York is 29-33 (-12.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • New York is 7-20 (-14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • New York is 19-24 (-9.0 Units) after a loss this season.

The Nats are 7-3 (+2.8 Units) against the Mets this season and their starting pitcher today, Stephen Strasburg, owns a team record of 10-4 (+5.1 units) when starting against New York with an ERA of 2.69 and a WHIP of 1.05 over the course of his career. Washington snapped out of a three-game funk with a 7-2 win over the Cardinals on Sunday, while the Mets bowed 7-1 against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.

The numbers on Strasburg in this situation, and against this team, are begging us to include the Nationals in our MLB picks and we are happy to do so. In the event this game goes sideways, we will save the juice and lay the 1½ runs as six of Washington’s seven wins over the Mets this season have been by two runs or more.

Free MLB Pick: Nationals -1½ (+120)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Reds (35-46, (-4.7 Units) At Rockies (48-36, +14.2 Units)
  • Colorado is 3-4 (-2.1 Units) when playing on Monday this season.
  • Colorado is 5-6 (-4.0 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
  • Colorado is 1-10 (-9.85 Units) over their last 11 games.
  • Cincinnati is 31-31 (+6.6 Units) against right-handed starters this season.
  • Cincinnati is 4-3 (+2.5 Units) in Colorado over the last three seasons.
  • Cincinnati is averaging 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.

The Rockies are in the midst of a shame spiral, dropping 10 of their last 11 games, and their meeting with the Reds does not bode well for snapping that losing skein. Jeff Hoffman, Colorado’s starter tonight, has the dubious distinction of owning an 8.36 ERA with a 2.00 WHIP at home this season.

The Reds have held their own at Coors Field as evidenced by their 4-3 (+2.5 units) record over the last three seasons. They are also getting no respect from the MLB odds makers in today’s matchup, but that translates into a whole lotta love for those who are inclined to bet them in this spot. We are just so inclined and will back the travelin’ pup in this one.

Free MLB Pick: Reds +143Best Line Offered: Intertops

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