July 27 Free Pick: Archer & Sabathia Start Rays-Yankees Series With 'Under' Winner

chris archer

Willie Bee

Thursday, July 27, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 27, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

The Rays begin a tough road trip against two of the AL’s best teams, and they’re slight underdogs on the MLB odds in the first of four games against the Yankees on Thursday.

MLB Season Record: 51-55-1 (-2.25)

On a weekend filled with crucial series, none is bigger than the 4-game set taking place between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. The AL East rivals crank things up Thursday night at Yankee Stadium where Chris Archer (7-6, 3.77) and CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.44) duel on the mound, Bookmaker pricing New York -115 and 8½ for the total.

The squads begin the series chasing Boston in the division race, New York a game behind the Red Sox with the Rays 2½ back. The Yankees have a very tenuous hold on the first AL Wild Card spot with the Royals slotted between them and Tampa Bay.


Hurlers Have Contrasting Totals Columns

Archer and Sabathia have squared off twice before, Carsten Charles and the Yankees coming out on top both times. One of those meetings was about two months ago at Tropicana Field where New York was a +125 underdog on the MLB odds only to prevail by a 3-2 count. The other was a little less than a year ago at Yankee Stadium, a Starlin Castro homer plating the winning runs in a 6-3 New York triumph.

Since their meeting in May, the Rays have won seven of Archer’s 11 assignments, two of the four defeats coming in his last two trips to the mound. On the season, the Rays are 12-9 when their young arm is on the mound, good enough to just keep bettors in the black, ‘over’ slips also cashing at a 12-9 clip. Sabathia ended up spending a little time on the DL after he beat Archer, New York winning seven of his last nine appearances going back a start before beating Tampa Bay. It has been a solid bounce-back showing for the portly portsider, the Yankees 12-4 (+8.7 units) and the ‘under’ prevailing in 11 of his 16 outings.


Rivalry Trends, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

The Yankees have dominated the rivalry over the years by playing nearly .600 ball against Tampa Bay and have won 44 of the 77 games played at the new park in the Bronx. They also have a 5-4 lead in the season series and are going for bragging rights for a third consecutive season. Three of those wins came in an April sweep here in New York, the pinstripes moderately favored in each game with two of the contests falling short of the totals.

There is a slight chance of rain in the forecast, but nothing that will keep the game from being played. Otherwise, it’s just a cloudy, humid day in the Bronx with temps in the mid-70s most of the game and a 9-12 mph southerly blow (right to left). I’m siding with CC’s totals trend for my free baseball pick.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8½ (+100)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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