Join The Mariners In Their Raid Against Astros With This Valuable MLB Pick

Jason Lake

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 11:08 AM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 26, 2016 11:08 AM UTC

The Houston Astros will have their back against the MLB odds tonight as they face the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Are you brave enough to trust Astros once again?

Jason's 2016 record as of April 25: 5-5 ML, 1-0 Totals (+0.82 units)

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Don't say we didn't try. We gave the Houston Astros a spin with our MLB picks earlier this week, in what we thought was a favorable matchup against the Boston Red Sox and one of their many fringe starters. Yeah, that didn't work. Boston tore up Collin McHugh for five runs over four innings, and Steven Wright went 6.2 strong innings for the Red Sox (+123 away) in a 6-2 victory.

The Astros (6-14, –11.03 units already) face a similar situation Tuesday night when they face the Seattle Mariners (10-9, –0.68 units) in Game 2 of a three-game set at Safeco, starting at 10:10 p.m. Eastern. It'll be Houston's ace Dallas Keuchel matched up against Seattle's No. 5 starter, Nathan “Nate Dogg” Karns... what's that? Oh, it's just “Nate.” The Astros are –130 favorites on our MLB odds board as we go to press. Do we trust the process from our earlier pick, or do we start fading Houston like there's no tomorrow?


I Got Love
In theory, Keuchel (3.17 FIP) is due for some positive regression to the mean. Opposing hitters have a combined .329 BABIP against the reigning NL Cy Young winner, a fair bit above Keuchel's career average of .297 BABIP. Then again, we said the same thing about McHugh in his last start, and look where that got us. Keuchel is having serious trouble with his velocity this year, and he's not been getting the kind of calls from the umpires that he got in 2015.

Karns (5.05 FIP) is having issues this year, too, but nobody's expecting him to win the Cy Young anytime soon. Seattle's fifth wheel is a fringe prospect who pitched 147 innings as a rookie last year for the Tampa Bay Rays, posting a decent 4.09 FIP and dropping 2.17 betting units on a team record of 12-14. Despite Karns' inflated FIP, Seattle is 2-1 in his three starts this year for 1.01 units in profit. Just don't plan on him lasting much more than five innings.


Fantasy Corner
Current Mariners hitters have a combined .696 OPS versus Keuchel, but OF/DH Seth Smith has had some success against the big lefty, going 4-for-12 at the plate with a pair of home runs and a lovely 1.250 OPS. Although Smith bats left-handed himself, he's recently earned himself a regular spot in the lineup, so chances are good he'll be in action Tuesday. Smith (.916 OPS) is available in over 97 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues at press time, which is the kind of anonymity you get when your name is Seth Smith and you play in Seattle.

Karns hasn't built much of a CV yet against Houston batters, but it's promising so far: 4-of-20 (f'nar f'nar) with seven strikeouts and a .638 OPS. Forget the process; we're recommending the Mariners this time, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: Seattle +126
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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