For Friday, I outlined two plays in yesterday's article on the Marlins with Fernandez on the hill visiting the San Diego Padres and Diamondbacks boxed with Brandon McCarthy. These plays are both valid as outlined. For the Arizona play I am seeing essentially -115 money lines and the Marlins installed as -129 favorites. These are acceptable lines. Yours may end up being modestly different one way or another, but never let that fact deter from following these selections.
I have a few supporting systems and game situations of reach play. CWS are just 41-73 (-27.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons; 7-23 (-18.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. Skipper Ventura is just 17-31 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when facing poor fielding teams averaging 0.75+ errors/game. Supporting the play on Miami is the fact that Fernandez is a rock solid 11-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when facing an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Play Arizona boxed with McCarthy and Miami boxed with Fernandez.
Saturday Starting Pitcher Report Card for Saturday and Sunday
For the Saturday card I really like the Brewers boxed with Kyle Loshe hosting the New York Yankees with their ace Sabathia on the hill. Expect the Yankees to be favored in the -135 area for this game in my opinion. Puhblic will always back the Yankees with Sabathiaon the hill and this has given us great betting opportunities to fade that betting flow.
Sabathia gave up five runs last Sunday on 10 hits and a walk over 3.2 innings in Sunday's loss to the Rays. Almost odd that Sabathia gave far greater effort in his off season condition and now can't find the gas on his fastball at all this season. Stronger legs and better cardio conditioning may not lead to increased velocity, but it certainly increases endurance games and over the course of the marathon season. His fastball has been average at best for a MLB starter. Brewers are an excellent fastball hitting team and I truly believe they will rock him in this start for a mountain of earned runs.
The 13-year veteran Kyle Loshe is having a very strong season posting a 2.72 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, and 4-1 record in seven starts spanning 46 1/3 innings. Moreover, he has walked 12 batters and struck out 42 batters for an excellent ratio and has allowed opponents a paltry 0.224 batting average.
In Sunday action, I encourage you to play on the Boston Red Sox boxed with John Lackey as they will be visiting Texas. Robbie Ross will start for Texas and he has yielded 6 ER in each of his last two starts. he has pitched poorly enough that skipper Washington had to release a media statement that Ross would start in this game and that the rotation will not change over the short-term. I expect Boston to cruise to a win.