Isolating Betting Conditions that Make the Astros MLB's Most Profitable Team

Jay Pryce

Monday, August 3, 2015 3:56 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 3, 2015 3:56 PM UTC

Much of the Astros unexpected success is their ability to score many runs. In this write-up, we provide a betting angle for bettors to profit off the league's most surprising team.

Leading the AL West by four games, the Houston Astros are a run-scoring machine. Knocking in 4.46 a contest this season, Skipper A.J. Hinch's men rank fifth in runs scored in the major leagues, and have crossed the plate the third most out of all teams since last August. Isolating specific conditions where the Astros are scoring in bunches can help sports investors return a profit from the most surprising team in MLB this year.

In the last calendar year, the Astros are 23-9 as home favorites when facing a right-handed starter. Closing at MLB odds of nearly -140 on average, Houston backers have returned a profit of nearly 25% in this simple situation. Although supported by an electrifying staff, which includes potential Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, the Astros bats are largely carrying the team in this situation. Scoring 5.1 runs per game during this time, the team's lineup executes with an all-or-nothing approach. Since last August, the Astros rank second in strike out percentage in the bigs, yet are runner-up in home runs per game, trailing only the Baltimore Orioles. In 2015, in fact, against right-handed pitching, the Astros lead the league in strike out percentage at 24.4%, yet have a .438 slugging percentage, second best in the majors. With this information, one should carry greater confidence in their wager if Houston is facing a starter who gives up an above-average amount of home runs. In the six games, for example, where the Astros scored eight or more runs in our situation, all but one opposing starter had a home run per nine-inning mark above 1.0.

Bettors should also be cognizant of who is on the hill for Houston. Carried by Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Colin McHugh for much of the 2015 season, the Astros are 17-2 in this scenario when one of these three starters takes the mound, as opponents are averaging only 2.6 runs a game against them. Returning 50% profit over this span straight up at averaging closing odds of -145, investors have profited 102% on the run line at 16-3 under these three. The recent acquisition of veteran southpaw, Scott Kazmir, should also warrant strong consideration in future bets. Scott Feldman, who has battled a knee injury all season, is the only Astros starter in the core five-man rotation not to post a winning record within the calendar year.

The Astros kick-off a two-week road trip against state rivals, the Texas Rangers, this evening. They return home on August 14 to host the reeling Detroit Tigers. Brad Ausmus' rotation, which is anchored by four right-handed starters, carries a 4.29 ERA over the last year, fourth highest in the majors, and are prone to give up the long ball. Look for the Astros to take the series and offer bettors a return on one's investment.

As always, use this information to support your leans and best of luck.  

MLB Pick: Take Astros 

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