Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.
Expect a very intense pitcher’s duel in a bitter rivalry between two teams fighting for the National League West title Saturday night when Zach Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers (83-64, 43-29 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants (82-65, 42-33 home) in the second game of a humongous three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 9:05 ET in a game available on CSN-Bay Area.
The posted total at Bet365 is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.
Giants Drew First Blood
The second place Giants drew first blood in this series with a decisive 9-0 shutout victory on Friday as Madison Bumgarner allowed just three hits in seven innings and San Francisco scored four runs in the first inning off of Hyun-Jin Ryu and never looked back. That trims the Dodgers’ lead in the NL West to just one game with these teams still having five games left against each other including three in Los Angeles beginning September 22nd.
The Giants have now won four straight games but the Dodgers were also playing well before last night as they had won five of their previous six contests. Los Angeles has also been the best MLB pick on the road in the Major Leagues this year at 43-29, so they may have been on the verge of clinching the division right about now if they had only done a better job of taking care of business at home, as they are only 40-35 at Dodger Stadium.
Ace on Any Other Staff
The Dodgers now have their top two starters lined up for the last two games of this series and the Saturday hurler Greinke would be an ace on any other pitching staff that does not have a guy named Kershaw!
Greinke is 14-8 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a terrific ratio of 186 strikeouts vs. 41 walks in 178.1 innings on the year. Furthermore, the Giants cannot be happy to be facing him as he is 3-0 in three starts vs. San Francisco this season with a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 26 strikeouts vs. four walks in 20 innings, including tossing seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts the last time he faced the Giants!
Greinke has also overcome the severe home vs. away splits that he has had over his entire career until now. His road problems in the past were probably triggered by his anxiety disorder, but apparently his medication is working as he has a 2.82 ERA on the road this year with 86 strikeouts vs. 21 walks in 92.2 innings.
Back in Good Form
Hudson looked like a godsend early in the season after signing with the Giants during the off-season as a free agent, but then went into a slump that more or less coincided with the slump of the Giants’ team following a great start. However, he has now rediscovered his good form, and just in the nick of time too with the Giants making a division title charge.
Hudson has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, and he also pitched well is his only 2104 start vs. the Dodgers, limiting them to two runs in six innings of a 7-4 win in Los Angeles back in May. Hudson may still be just 9-10 on the year, but his recent form has allowed him to lower his ERA to 3.12 and his WHIP to 1.18, and while he has never been a big strikeouts guy he does have a good ratio of 112 strikeouts vs. 31 walks.
Trending ‘under’ in San Francisco
Finally, these teams have become somewhat accustomed to playing low scoring games against each other, especially here in San Francisco where the ‘under’ is still 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings even with Friday’s game going ‘over’.
Look for a return to that ‘under’ pattern given the pitching matchup in San Francisco on Saturday.
MLB Pick: Dodgers, Giants ‘under’ 6½ (-110)