I have found 2 ways to beat the MLB odds today, as the New York Yankees with CC Sabathia host the Cleveland Indians with Trevor Bauer. Betting trends and recent history support my picks.
Sunday's Indians-Yankees MLB Odds
In the early betting action the best line we could find on New York with CC Sabathia was the -152 offered at BetOnline, while Cleveland and Trevor Bauer could be found getting +150 at 5Dimes. And the total on today's game sat at a very American League 8.5 runs.
Cleveland took the first two games of this four-game series, but New York got on the board with a 6-2 victory Saturday. So the Yanks have won seven of their last 10 games, while the Indians have lost five of their last eight.
At 68-54 New York leads the AL East by a half-game over second-place Toronto.
At 57-65 Cleveland is now six games off the pace in the race for the second American League wild-card spot.
The Tribe leads this season series four games to two, with the OVERS going 4-2.
Sabathia (4-9, 5.24), by our strict standards, is just eight-for-23 on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. Tuesday he gave up four runs through 6 2/3 innings against Minnesota, but over his last three starts he's allowed seven runs through 18 2/3 innings. On the season the former Indian has given up more hits, 160, including 25 homers, through 136 innings.
New York is 11-12 in Sabby's starts, with the OVERS going 13-10.
Sabathia has started once this season against Cleveland, eleven days ago, when he held them to two runs and nine hits through six innings of a game the Yankees eventually lost 2-1.
Bauer (9-10, 4.62) is 13-for-24 on quality starts, but 0 for his last three. Tuesday he couldn't get out of the second inning against Boston, giving up five runs, and over his last three starts he's been bombed for 15 runs through just 11 1/3 innings. On the season Bauer has allowed fewer hits, 127, than innings pitched, 142, but 23 of those hits have left the yard.
The Tribe is 10-14 in Bauer's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 14-9 margin.
Bauer has started four times in his career against New York; the first two went well, as he allowed four ER through 13 innings, but in his last two starts against the Yanks, including a poor effort 10 days ago, he's allowed nine ER through 6 2/3 innings. Cleveland lost those last two starts, and both games played OVER.
Sunday's Batting Splits
Cleveland ranks 13th in the Bigs this season against left-handed pitching with a .260 team batting average, and seventh with a .330 team on-base percentage.
New York, on the other hand, ranks 16th against right-handed pitching with a .252 team BA and 14th with a .317 team OBP.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 29-26 on the totals, averaging 9.3 runs per.
New York 1B Mark Teixeira has missed the last week with a sore leg, and is questionable again for today.
Indians-Yankees Sunday Free Picks
When deciding how to place our MLB picks on Sunday, we'll give Sabathia a short edge in the pitching match-up, thanks to the better recent form, and in this spot that's enough for us; we'll go with New York. Also, we can see this game getting to 5-4, so we're thinking OVER.
MLB Picks: Yankees and OVER 8.5 runs (-105) at Heritage