Indians vs. Orioles: Mind-Boggling Betting Odds Deciphered

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 26, 2015 2:18 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 26, 2015 2:18 PM UTC

Classified as a "PERCEPTION/REALITY" game by this skilled baseball betting adviser, Indians vs. Orioles on Friday features a false favorite, who is living on the reputation of their starter. Lots of value in this one!

Cleveland Indians (Kluber)  vs. Baltimore Orioles (Chen) 7:05 ET
The Cleveland Indians visit the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards for the first game of this 3-game weekend set.  The first pitch will come at 7:05 ET.  This is a PERCEPTION/REALITY game based on the strong reputation of Cleveland’s starter, Kluber, who hoisted the American League CY Young Award last season.  Because of that reputation, a 33-38 Cleveland team has been made the road favorite against a host Baltimore team, who is 38-34 overall and 22-13 on this field.  Combined with a solid mismatch in current form, we have an outstanding home underdog play at a value price in Friday's MLB odds.

Cleveland was cruising along on a 13-5 run, poised to live up to the expectations of preseason prognosticators.  But, the door has been slammed shut on Cleveland, as they limp into Baltimore with a recent 6-10 record, despite their Wednesday 8-2 victory at home vs. Detroit.  The biggest culprit in the Tribes’ underachieving season is the fact they have gone 3-12 in 15 starts by Kluber.  The combination of little run support and a 3.65 ERA has led to the dismal record.  In 4 starts in June, Kluber is 0-4 with a 4.00 ERA.   Cleveland has won just 1 of Kluber’s 8 road starts.  That makes them a pure PLAY AGAINST material in the role of road favorite.  

The Baltimore bats have at last begun to boom.  On a 15-5 run, the Orioles have outscored the opposition 109-62 in the last 20 games, averaging 5.5 RPG.  That outburst has lifted Baltimore to a .738 batting OPS (the 6th best in all of MLB).  Baltimore returns home after taking 2 of 3 from Boston, earlier in the week.  Tonight, they send W. Chen to the mound, who has a chip on his shoulder, after being sent for a rehab start earlier this week.  It was a bit mind-boggling, considering the Orioles have won 8 of 13 Chen starts, in which he has a 2.89 ERA.  His current form is outstanding with a 1.86 ERA in his previous 3 starts.  From this mound, Chen has a 1.10 WHIP, making him a near automatic play at a home underdog price.

This is a great value spot for a winning team as home underdog, behind a solid home starter.  Fading a sub .500 Cleveland team with a starter, behind whom they have won just 3 of 15 games, makes it pure gravy!

MLB Picks: Take Baltimore Orioles -103 at Pinnacle

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