Indians-Cubs MLB Pick: Hard to Argue Against the Underdog Value Here

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 12:44 PM GMT

Even with a losing record I am backing the Cleveland Indians today to beat the Chicago Cubs on the plus money line. The Cubs are the hotter team right now in the last ten games, but I like the pitching matchup in this spot. 

Heritage
Right now the best odds can be found at Heritage Sports Book. At +122 odds it is the best place to get this game on the Cleveland Indians. It is not surprising that the Cubs are the favorite in this spot because they are at home and have the winning record. Still, the value here is on the Indians.

 

Pitchers
Trevor Bauer gets the start today for the Cleveland Indians and comes in with a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. At only 24 years old Bauer is really starting to come into his prime and is pitched very well this season. He's a really good strikeout pitcher with 75 strikeouts and 74 innings. He is also in a good bounce back spot as last game he gave up six earned runs in only three innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners. Prior to that bad outing he gave up only seven earned runs in his last 28 innings. For the Cubs, Jake Arrieta takes the mound with a 3.16 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Like Bauer he is also a good strikeout pitcher with 83 strikeouts in his last 77 innings. He usually keeps run totals down and has only allowed 11 runs in his last 25 innings pitched. Although his numbers are a little bit better than Bauer's, it is not by much and both these pitchers have an opportunity to have a good day on the mound. Essentially to me with how both of them are pitching this year this matchup is pretty even.

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At the Plate
Offensively the Indians lead the Chicago Cubs and most offensive categories. They rank 12th in batting average hitting .254 compared to the Cubs rank 21st batting .245. They also rank higher in hits per game rank 14th compared to the Cubs at 19th. As well, the Indians ranked fifth in the league and on base percentage at .329 compared to the Cubs rank 10th at .320. Across the board the Cleveland Indians are the better hitting team. One final stat worth noting is strikeouts per game, the Indians ranked third in the league at only 6.68 strikeouts per game compared to the Cubs who rank last in all of major league baseball at 9.57 strikeouts per game.

Although the Cubs have been the hotter team lately the value here is definitely with the Indians, the pitching matchup is close to even and the Indians are a little bit better of an offensive team. It makes sense to have the Cubs the favorite in this spot because they are at home and have the better record. This is about value though and the value definitely sides with the Indians, back them on the plus money line with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Indians +129 at Pinnacle