With the best offense in the majors facing a pretty decent offense, it's tempting to shade the 'over' with MLB picks, but I'm expecting quality starts from David Price & Danny Salazar.
Indians vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds
It looks like to me the odds makers are on top of this game and siding with the pitchers making this a low total for the American League at 7.5. That is the total across the board but you get some pretty good odds right now at under this total at Pinnacle at +100.
Danny Salazar takes the mound for Cleveland with a 3.30 ERA, 1.08 whip, 162 strikeouts, and 11-7 record. He has been solid on the road this season with a 3.41 ERA and batters hitting only .216 against him. Also, in his last five starts he has only allowed seven total earned runs in over 30 innings of work. Probably what I like best about the start for him today is that he is coming off one of his worst starts in his last 10 games where he allowed four earned runs off of eight hits in just four innings against the New York Yankees. This puts him in a nice bounce back spot to come in and pitch well against a very good offense in the Blue Jays.
Cleveland ranked 18th in runs per game at 4.07, 14th in OPS at .718, and 10th in team batting average hitting .256. They should have some trouble today against arguably the best left-hander in the American League in David Price. As well, their offensive statistics drop considerably away from Cleveland. Their team batting average goes from .271 at home to .242 on the road, and there OPS from .750 to .688.
Toronto Blue Jays
David Price gets the start for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 2.42 ERA, 1.08 whip, 179 strikeouts, and a 13-4 record. He is arguably having the best year of his seven-year major league career. In his last five starts he has been stellar allowing eight total earned runs in 36 innings of work. At home in Toronto he has also pitched well allowing just four earned runs in two starts against the twins and the Yankees. He could be absolutely lights out today and I look for him to have a very solid quality start.
The Blue Jays rank first in runs scored per game at 5.50, first in OPS at .785, and fifth in team batting average hitting .265 this season. Taking under the total while they are one of the teams playing is never a play to make lightly because they can flat out hit. For them to reach double digits in runs in any game is not really that big of a surprise. Still, I don't think they will have nearly as much success as yesterday against a very good starting pitcher in Danny Salazar. Look for the Jays to go ahead and score a few runs but to be tempered just a little bit.
A game like this with two good offenses it always come back to the number, and today that number is 7.5. I'm sure it is very tempting to place MLB Picks over in this matchup but I like for both of these pitchers to rule the day and give us a surprisingly low final, back the under.
MLB Picks: Under 7.5