Indians -1.5 +135 Our Sharp MLB Pick Against Yankees

SBR Picks Staff

Thursday, July 7, 2016 8:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 7, 2016 8:35 PM UTC

The NY Yankees and Cleveland Indians begin their first game of a 4-game weekend set, prior to the All Star Break with this 7:10 ET start. Get our free MLB pick inside.  

NY Yankees (Nova) vs. Cleveland Indians (Bauer)
The Tribe has outscored the opposition by 79 runs this year (3rd best in MLB behind only the Cubs and Washington). Each of these teams comes off embarrassing losses yesterday. But, the combination of favorable starting pitching, a huge batting edge and superior current form make it clear why you will be eager to lay the runs with Cleveland in a situation that has produced 81% winners.


Betting Preview
The NY Yankees are clearly NOT the Bronx Bombers of yore! They have a .702 batting OPS which is a dreadful .658 on the road (better than only Atlanta when playing away from home). NY enters Cleveland on a 2-4 road trip, after suffering a 5-0 shutout at the hands of CWS last night. That dropped the Yankees on the road to 18-25. To begin this series, they send Ivan Nova to the mound. For the year, Nova is 5-5 with a 5.06 ERA and .819 OPS. But, that work has been far worse of late. In 4 recent starts, Nova has a 6.98 ERA and .333 BAA. With a .893 road OPS, he is simply not to be trusted.

Cleveland has not surprised preseason prognosticators with their 51-33 record. The Tribe was projected to win 86 games and win the AL Central. The projections were based on outstanding starting pitching, which has not disappointed. Their recent run is now 16-3, but just 2-3 of late, after their 14-game winning streak was snapped. The 12-2 loss on this field to Detroit yesterday afternoon snapped a 13-game home winning streak and will have Cleveland eager to make a mends. With Nova on the mound for the Yankees,Cleveland’s .830 home OPS batting (No. 3 in MLB) should have a field day. Sending Bauer to the mound is an additional positive. Called into action for a 5 IP relief stint, Bauer performed admirably, allowing just 2 hits to get the victory in Cleveland’s 19-inning OT marathon last Friday. Today, he will take his turn with normal rest, sporting a record of 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA.  A home OPS of .634, more than 100 points better than the average, will speak to more positive results.


Final Analysis
We confidently lay the runs with the knowledge that 35 of 43 NY losses (81%) have been by 2 or more runs, while 12 of 13 recent Cleveland victories (92%) have been by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Cleveland Indians tonight.

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MLB Pick: Indians -1.5 +135
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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