Independence Day MLB Picks of the Day

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 4, 2017 12:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 4, 2017 12:33 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper looks to celebrate 'Merica's Independence day with two easy winners on the Tuesday MLB betting card. Grab a beer and a hot dog and read his Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day,

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An ultra-low total has been posted for Clayton Kershaw’s start at home against the Diamondbacks, and our MLB handicapper can’t help but take the other side for one of his Tuesday MLB Picks.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers, July 4th

Clayton Kershaw starts for the Dodgers on the 4th of July at home, a game that is sure to end with a firework display of some sort. My thought is that there may be fireworks during the game as well since the Arizona offense is very good against lefty starters this year and average 5 runs per game. Those starts weren’t all against Kershaw of course, but his 17.2% HR/FB rate suggests that the Diamondbacks have the possibility of tagging the best pitcher in baseball with a few runs in this game. A few runs should be all we need.

Lefty Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Diamondbacks, and if it weren’t for recent ass-whompings I’d be willing to back him on the +1.5 run line in this game. That is not the case though, as the Dodgers offense has been on a tear. Corbin already faced the Dodgers once this year in April, a 5 run (3 earned) performance that ended in an 8-4 Dodger win. Corbin is running a 4.47 FIP on the year, and all we need to get this game over the listed total is 3 runs earned. I love the value of the total here and will be taking Over 7 at BookMaker as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 7 (-120)Best Line Offered at BookMaker

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Michael Fulmer of the Tigers has largely slipped under the radar as one of the most effective pitchers in the American League this year. On the 4h of July, he gets a juicy matchup with the Giants that we should be able to profit from.

Giants vs. Tigers, July 4th

Michael Fulmer has improved on his 3.76 FIP 2016 campaign with a 2.95 FIP year in 2017. Somehow, that has only led to a 7-6 record and one of the league leaders in home run suppression isn’t getting the respect he deserves in my opinion. In this year of elevated home run rates, Fulmer is allowing just a 4.6% HR/FB rate. His 3.1 accumulated WAR through 101.2 innings would lead to one of the best pitching seasons in the last decade if he continues his pace.  There is also nothing leading to the conclusion of luck for Fulmer, as his BABIP of .287 is over his career average.

Fulmer will match up against Matt Cain of the Giants, who’s velocity decline this year has him barely hanging on to a starting role with the basement dwellers. His FIP of 5.21 is below average, and his 3.75 BB/9 is worse than last year’s mark of 3.22 – a year in which Cain finished 4-8. I’ll take one of the best pitchers in the MLB at home on the 4th of July here even with the chalk presented, and wager Detroit -1.5 on the run line as one of my MLB Picks of the Day with the betting lines from Heritage.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+100)Best Line Offered at Heritage

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2017 MLB Record, 125-117-7, -2.43 Units

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