Incredible Betting Value Found with Phillies +153 vs. Mets: Bartolo Colon Overvalued

Darin Zank

Monday, May 25, 2015 1:33 PM GMT

The MLB odds favored Yankees hope home-field magic is still working when it hosts rival Philadelphia for Game 1 of a three-game series at Citi Field Memorial Day afternoon.

The Betting
As of early Monday morning, MLB odds were favoring New York and veteran Bartolo Colon by around -170 over Philly and rookie Severino Gonzalez, with a total of 7.5 runs.

 

The Situation
New York (24-21) just got swept three games in Pittsburgh over the weekend, scoring a total of four runs in the process. So the Mets are 1-2-1 in their last four series, and 4-10 in their last 14 games. But one thing New York has going for it Monday is a 17-6 record at Citi Field this season.

Bigger-picture (yes, it's early, but ...), the Mets are one game back of the Giants and Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Philadelphia (19-27) just dropped two of three games at Washington over the weekend. The Phillies showed some life a while back with a six-game winning streak, then split four games with Colorado. So they're 8-4 over their last 12 games.

Check out Ron's MLB Pick for Giants vs. Brewers, too.

Monday's Starters
Colon (6-3, 4.85), who just turned 42, started well this season, but has been tagged for 17 earned runs over his last three starts, covering 15 1/3 innings. New York has lost two of his last three starts. Also, in his last two outings against Philadelphia he's been clipped for 10 runs through 11 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez (2-1, 7.11), filling in for the injured Chad Billingsley in the Philly rotation, got bombed in his ML debut a month ago, but in two starts since then he's allowed just three runs through 10 innings. The Phillies have won his last two starts.

 

Season Series
The Mets have taken five of six games from the Phillies so far this season, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 3-2-1 margin.

 

Free MLB Picks
New York is a little banged up at the moment, with at least three regulars out, and Colon has been cold. So despite some of the betting trends mentioned above the value on today's line resides with Philly. Also, these two lineups rank among the worst in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching. So for our MLB pick we're thinking UNDER.

MLB Picks: Philadelphia +153 at 5Dimes and UNDER 7.5 runs at GT Bets