In Shields We Trust: Fade Lewis & the Rangers Over Padres

Steven Suarez

Saturday, July 11, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 11, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

The Padres seemingly hold the advantage in the pitching matchup tonight, but Texas will be at home. Who should we side with for our final MLB picks?

Odds Overview
Even though Colby Lewis is going through some serious regression, the Rangers are still favorites for tonight's game at home. They're listed at right around -115 to secure the victory.

If you want to back James Shields and the Padres, they're available at a price of +105. We're not surprised at all to see an extremely high total of nine runs in the hitter-friendly environment in Arlington.


Texas Rangers (Lewis)
The Rangers finally ended a long losing streak by winning yesterday's series opener at home against San Diego. Wandy Rodriguez picked up the winning decision in a result that moved Texas to 42-44 for the season. There are only two more games for the Rangers before we reach the All-Star Break, starting with this evening's battle.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, they sent out Lewis to the bump. He's 8-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the season, as his numbers have finally normalized after a solid start to his season. He was absolutely tormented in his latest start, surrendering 12 hits and 10 earned runs over four innings of a 12-6 loss to the Angels. 

Lewis will try to bounce back in a seemingly easy matchup against the Padres, who have been one of the weakest offenses in baseball, especially against right-handed hitting. Still, Lewis' concerns have to be troubling to those considering backing the Rangers in their own ballpark tonight.

Check out our pitcher's report to find out who we like in this matchup!

San Diego Padres (Shields)
The strikeout numbers haven't been overwhemingly dominant in Shields' recent outings, but he's still been very effective. Over his last two assignments, he's allowed a total of six hits and two earned runs in 13 and 2/3 innings of work. Shields completely shut down the Pirates in his latest start and will be feeling confident heading into a reasonably tough matchup.

As a team, however, the Padres have really been struggling. They've lost six consecutive games, which has dropped their overall record to 39-49. They're fourth out of five teams in the NL West and look like they're going to have trouble keeping up with the likes of the Dodgers and the Giants.

This isn't the easiest of scheduled pitching assignments for Shields, but we've all seen what he's capable of when in the zone on the bump. He's got great stuff and can rack up the strikeouts when on his game; the crucial part will be whether or not he can find success in the early innings and keep his command on point throughout. Avoiding big pitch counts early on has hampered Shields' success so far this season.


MLB Pick
A chance to fade Lewis and his continued regression at a plus number? Yes, we're going to jump all over that opportunity.

We realize the Padres aren't exactly the most trusted team in baseball, but they do have some pop, and we've seen that it doesn't really take all that much to rattle Lewis. We wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Upton and Kemp do some damage in this favorable hitting situation against a pitcher that has finally come back down to earth. Lews is not to be trusted, no matter who he's facing, and he's always going to be hard to trust at home in the hitter-friendly environment

In the end, we have more trust in Shields, and we think the Padres offense will be able to put some runs up the board in support. With your MLB picks, you may want to consider a straight moneyline play on San Diego at these very appealing MLB odds.

MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +105 at The Greek

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