In Search of Total(s) Success on MLB Sunday

Doug Upstone

Sunday, August 13, 2017 3:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 13, 2017 3:56 PM UTC

One would think with 16 games to choose in baseball, it would be relatively easy to come up at least three plays. Yet, at least from this perspective, that is not the case on this day.

In looking over the matchups, what I kept running into was a starting pitcher or team that was either pitching well and his team was not scoring much and he was opposed by an opponent who had a pitcher who had been giving out runs like candy for a first-grader at school for their birthday and his club was scoring runs with abandon. In theory, this makes it relatively easy for sportsbooks to set MLB odds because they take the two numbers and come up with a figure.

For those of us who are handicapping games and looking to generate MLB picks, this complicates matters and this is why I am going with my two best choices.


AL Central Contest Has Inflated Number

Let's get this out of the way, I'm not saying the Minnesota and Detroit total from the oddsmakers is wrong at 10, I just disagree. Going into Saturday, the Twins offense was percolating, averaging 6.1 runs per contest in their last seven outings and at last look was pounding Detroit pitchers again last night. They are going to see the tosses of Matt Boyd, who has a 5.64 ERA on the season and actually been a little worse lately with 6.32 ERA the past three times he's taken the ball. Yet let's flip the coin over and look at the Twinkies Ervin Santana, whose assembled a remarkable season and has a 3.27 ERA. Put Santana in the traveling gray's and his ERA falls to 2.52 and not unexpectedly is 8-3 UNDER. Finally, let's put this package together and consider Santana is 13-2 UNDER in away day games and Boyd has a solid 3.52 ERA against Minnesota.

Free MLB Pick: Play UnderBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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 Cubs and Diamondbacks Offense Come Up Dry in the Desert

For those unfamiliar with living in the south desert of Arizona, this is the so-called - Monsoon Season - where from basically July 4th until the end of August, the majority of time there is a chance of rain. Otherwise, you can literally go months without moisture on the ground. My educated prediction is that a Jake Arrieta vs. Zack Godley will be in keeping with sparse production in terms of base-runners plating. After a slow start, Arrieta has only given as many as three earned runs just once in his last seven starts. And with all the pitching prospects the Arizona was thought to have developed over the last five years, Godley is emerging the best of the bunch with a super 2.94 ERA. With the Snakes a -110 to -115 opening favorite and total of 9, you has to ponder in the Cubs past 30 games in which their money line was -125 to +125, the average total runs scored was 7.7 per game, which explains my outcome.

Free MLB Pick: Play UnderBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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