Ignore Your Instincts: Research Supports Argument for 'Under' When D-Backs Face Dodgers

Charles Stark

Wednesday, June 10, 2015 11:43 AM GMT

This MLB handicapper deciphers the pretty surprising total line out for today's Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodger matchup. Find out why he's betting under the run total today.

The MLB Odds Line is What?
MLB odds makers have come out with this line at 7.5.  At first glance it seems a bit low, but after a little digging I like the under here in this spot.  The best odds right now can be found at Pinnacle at -108.

 

Undervalued or Overvalued
It seems the odds makers are overvaluing these two starters, but this game has a very solid chance to go under the total.  Jeremy Hellickson comes in for Arizona with a 4.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, those numbers alone make me think hard about the total for this game.  But in his last three games he has only allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings.  For the Dodgers Brett Anderson takes the mound with a 3.29 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Like Hellickson, he has pitched well in his past three starts allowing only six earned runs in his last 20 innings.

 

At the Plate
Statistically both the Dbacks and Dodgers are two of the better offenses in the league.  In fact I had the over the total when they two met up two games ago. The Dodgers rank in the top ten to top five in all major offensive categories and they lead the league in on base percentage.  The Dbacks are ranked mid tier to top ten in most categories but they have struggle a bit in their past few games only averaging about 2.5 runs a game their last three.  The Dodgers broke out two days ago scoring nine runs, but besides that in the other four games in their last five they scored 3, 2, 2, 1 runs.

Don’t let the surprising total fool you, this game is going to be another low scoring affair. Place your MLB picks backing the under.

MLB Picks: Under 7.5 +100 at The Greek