Ian Kennedy & Padres the MLB Pick as Dogs vs. Dodgers

Darin Zank

Tuesday, August 19, 2014 2:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2014 2:14 PM UTC

Los Angeles still leads the NL West, but has struggled a bit lately. Here's our take on the Dodgers-Padres three-game series at Chavez Ravine that begins Tuesday night (10:10 pm ET), with free MLB picks for your consideration.

Padres-Dodgers Betting Odds
In the very early betting action the best line we could find for Tuesday's game on LA with newcomer Kevin Correia was the -117 offered at 5Dimes, while San Diego and Ian Kennedy could be gotten at +114 at BetOnline. And most shops were listing the total on Tuesday's contest at seven runs.

Also, Bovada is chalking the Dodgers at -200 to win this series, with the Padres getting +160.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":287265, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Series Set-Up
LA just got swept three games at home by Milwaukee over the weekend, losing Sunday 7-2. The Dodgers have lost two of their last three series and six of their last 10 games.

At 70-56 LA leads the NL West by 3.5 games over second-place San Francisco.

San Diego, meanwhile, just dropped three of four games in St. Louis over the weekend. The Padres lost close games Thursday and Friday, won 9-5 Saturday, then fell Sunday 7-6, leaving the tying run on third and the lead run on second in the ninth inning. But San Diego has won four of its last six series, going 12-6 over that span.

At 58-65 the Padres sit in third place in the NL West, 10.5 games behind the Dodgers. San Diego is  also seven games off the pace in the battle for the second NL wild-card spot.

LA leads this season series seven games to three, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' by an 8-2 margin.


Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up
Kevin Correia (6-13, 4.79), by our tough standards, is 12/24 on quality starts this season, 1/1 since joining the Dodgers in that trade with Minnesota. In his first start for LA last Monday against Atlanta he gave up one run and four hits in six innings of a 6-2 Dodgers victory. And going back to his last couple of starts with the Twins, including an outing vs. these Padres, Correia has given up five ER over his last 18 innings.

On the season the former Padre has allowed 161 hits in 135 innings, walked just 33 but struck out just 66. His teams have gone 7-17 in Correia's starts, with the totals going 13-10-1.

Correia, pitching for Minnesota, has already started twice against San Diego this season, giving up six runs and nine hits in 12 innings; the Twins split those two games, and both games played 'over.'

Kennedy (9-10, 3.54) is 12/25 on quality starts this year. Last time out he gave up three runs in six innings against Colorado, and over his last three starts he's allowed five ER in 17 innings. But he's also been a little wild lately, walking 22 batters over his last 36 innings.

On the season Kennedy has allowed 138 hits in 152 innings, walked 52 and struck out 163 for a K/BB ratio of better than 3/1. San Diego is 12-13 in Kennedy's starts, with the totals leaning 'under' 16-9.

Kennedy has started three times already this season against Los Angeles, allowing seven ER and 15 hits in 18 innings; the Padres are 1-2 in those games, with the totals going 1-2.

In the comparison of the bullpens in this series San Diego ranks No. 1 in the Majors with a 2.35 ERA, with 31 saves in 37 chances, while LA ranks 20th with a 3.74 ERA, with 37 saves in 48 opportunities.


With the Sticks
San Diego ranks dead last in the Majors in both team OBP at .289 and in scoring at 3.3 runs per game. But the Padres have been better at the bat lately, scoring at least four runs in six of their last eight games.

Los Angeles ranks fourth in OBP at .328, first in stolen bases with 114 and 14th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game.


Padres-Dodgers Betting Trends
LA, for whatever reason, is just 30-30 at home this season.

San Diego is 24-38 on the road.

The Padres have leaned toward the 'unders' this year by a lopsided 74-44 margin.

Games played at Dodger Stadium this year have tilted toward the 'overs' by a 34-22 margin.


Injury Update
San Diego is playing without Yonder Alonzo, Cameron Maybin, Everth Cabrera and Carlos Quentin, but they're used to this situation.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are playing without Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe, who are both on the DL.


Free MLB Pick
We give Kennedy the edge in the pitching match-up, and the Padres have been playing some pretty good ball as of late. And they're getting an underdog price. So we'll go with San Diego for our free MLB pick on Tuesday's series opener.

comment here