Hype Pitching Duel Makes 'Under' The MLB Pick In Red Sox vs. Orioles

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 12:41 PM GMT

Tuesday, May. 31, 2016 12:41 PM GMT

Two promising pitchers take the mound in this AL East clash and our MLB handicapper thinks that the value lies in backing the defenses. Find out who's favored to win this game in the MLB odds boards.

2016 YTD MLB: 19-10-1, +8.74 Units

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
A little birthday golf this morning to get over the sting of last night’s losing total pick in Toronto, but still feeling good in the midst of a 11-4 ATS run. We have the Boston Red Sox again on my plate, this time as they stay on the road on Tuesday afternoon to face the Baltimore Orioles in another AL East matchup.

Boston walloped the Orioles in Monday afternoon’s game by a score of 7-2, winning at -110 on the moneyline while the score of 9 pushed the consensus total listed (except for Heritage that had an over lean of 9.5). In this game the Orioles are favored slightly at just -119 at BookMaker on the moneyline. The O/U total has opened up at 9 at all books so far with just about even money on either side of the total.

 

Baltimore Orioles
Kevin Gausman gets the start for the Orioles after coming off of a 4-2 loss at the Houston Astros in which he was responsible for all 4 earned runs, gave up 3 home runs, struck out 7 batters and allowed just one walk. The decision was just the first in a string of six games in which Gausman earned a no decision, and also continued a stretch where the young pitcher exhibited great control around the plate. His 37/9 K/BB rate is one of the best in baseball would he qualify after only pitching 41.2 innings.

Gausman’s weakness is right-handed batters, as he has exhibited a .233/.274 BAA split over his career against lefties and righties. The split has been pronounced even more this year as he has allowed right-handers to bat .287 against him while limiting left handers to just a .153 average. This begs us to consider the right-handers that Boston could bring to bear against Gausman, and if they are of consequence. Well, unfortunately for Guzman it is about the entire lineup except for David Ortiz and Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

Boston Red Sox
Pitching against his old farm team is Boston starter, Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in 2016 yet and is coming off of a leg injury, but the stats he has put up in his reheb stint have been promising. His last start in AAA Pawtucket was a 7 inning masterpiece in which he only gave up one run. The fact that this is a knee issue and not a shoulder or elbow injury reduces my concern somewhat with Rodriguez. Last year in 121.1 innings pitched he put up a 10-6 record, 3.54 ERA, 98/37 K/BB rate, 1.29 WHIP, and .249 batting average against.

If last year’s results are any indication for Rodriguez, runs won’t come easy against him. Out of 21 starts, in only 4 games did Rodriguez give up more than 3 runs – and he only gave up 3 runs twice in those 21 starts as well. His last start against Baltimore was a 2-0 loss on September 14th.

 

Conclusions
With Gausman carrying a 3.24 ERA on the season and 3.12 career ERA against Boston, and also exhibiting stellar control on the season, I like his chances of pitching well in this spot. I also like Rodriguez in this spot against his former team. The signs here point to a fine pitching duel between talented youngsters, so I am taking Under 9 runs -105 at Heritage  as my Tuesday afternoon MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 +100
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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