Huge Dog to Offer Top Value as MLB Odds Undervalue Reds Tonight in Pittsburgh

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 25, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 2:22 PM UTC

This rubber band is about to snap and we profit at a HUGE Big Dog price when the Cincinnati Reds meet the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC park tonight.

Cincinnati Reds (DeSclafani) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Burnett) (-150) 7:05 ET
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates wind up their 3-game set at PNC Park Thursday evening in this 7:05 ETstart.  The Reds and Pirates split the first 2 games of the series with the Pirates recording a 7-6 comeback win on Tuesday night before Pirates’ ace, Gerrit Cole, got ripped early in a resulting 5-2 Cincinnati win last night.  Some may opt for the Pirates’ bounce back to win this series.  After all, Pittsburgh is 22-12 at home, while the Reds are 13-23 away.  But, tonight’s Pirates starter, Burnett, along with his starting mates, has flashed a “SELL” sign that is too great to ignore.

There is no denying this is an excellent Pittsburgh team once again this season.  At 40-31, Pittsburgh has the 2nd best record in the National League, trailing St. Louis by 7 full games.  Playing against weak competition, such as Philly, Milwaukee and CWS, Pittsburgh amassed a recent 21-5 surge, including an 8-game stretch where the starters had a 0.80 ERA.  In the 5 games since, however, when facing Washington and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh has gone 1-4 with a 9.97 starter’s ERA.  Among the biggest busts in that timeframe was today’s starter, Burnett, who got ripped for 4 runs and 14 hits in a loss at Washington in his most recent outing.  There are concerns in fading him, as in 6 home starts, Burnett has a 1.27 ERA and 1.06 home WHIP.  He has also been decent against the Reds, against whom he has a record of 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 12 starts.

Only the fact they are hosting the 2015 All Star game has kept interest alive in the Queen City.  For, the Reds 33-37 mark leaves them 13 ½ games behind St. Louis, as well as 6 games behind the Pirates and Cubs in the NL Central.  No surprise, if there are some major roster moves in the month of July!  Tonight, Cincinnati sends their young starter, DeSclafani, to the mound.  Despite the Reds’ recent 4-14 road mark, DeSclafani has pitched his best ball away from home.  In 7 road starts, DeSclafani has a 2.58 ERA, .189 BAA and a 1.06 road WHIP to match that of Burnett at home.  

Value side in this one is the Reds as Big Dog!  After a 9-18 decline, the Reds have solid momentum with wins in 5 of 7 recent games. Combined with the fact that DeSclafani has pitched his best baseball on the road and that Burnett may have flashed a SELL sign in his most recent start, we line up with Cincinnati as your Big Dog MLB pick of the Night.

MLB Pick: Take Cincinnati Reds at The Greek

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