How Wet Conditions Can Affect Your MLB Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 10:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2015 10:41 PM UTC

For those generating MLB picks there is a lot to consider, starting pitchers, bullpens, certain pitcher vs. hitter’s matchups, how either team is playing when they meet and more.

This typically is more than enough for your normal person studying the betting odds to arrive at a decision for MLB picks. However, there is one more area baseball handicappers concern themselves with and that is the weather.

In this case wet weather and what it can mean to a game on a variety of levels. Let’s take a gander at particular elements you don’t necessarily have to spend a lot of time thinking about, but it should cross your mind with a significant chance of rain in the forecast.


Understanding Drizzle and Its Impact
To begin, let’s start with the impact of drizzle and what it means. If the forecast calls for light rain throughout a game, consider what it could mean. Let’s say Bryce Harper of Washington has another hot streak, but he’s playing through a minor hamstring problem, which is tolerable but something he and the Nationals are aware of.

Say you check out the MLB odds at sportsbooks, maybe one like Heritage or Bookmaker, known for strong opening numbers. You might see there is a 70 percent chance of light rain, no big deal right? An hour before the game starts manager Matt Williams decides to sit Harper, not wanting to risk injury on a wet field. There is no way to say Harper playing or not would mean a winning wager for you, but having him in the lineup will only enhance your chances with the Nationals.

Pitchers too are affected in these conditions. A slow steady drizzle allows the dirt to cake up and for pitchers that can mean that their spikes become clogged with mud. This could cause a pitcher to slip on his plant foot leading to injury or leaving a hanging pitch. Even after cleaning the spikes, often the area of the plant foot is more matted down which ever so slighting can alter the angle of release. While this might sound nit-picky, a pitch missing its mark by two inches could be the difference of a groundout or a ball off the wall.


Heavy Storms Expected Can Alter Presumed Dynamics
While we all complain about weather forecasts from time to time, their accuracy has improved dramatically since the turn of the century due to technology.

When heavy rain is presumed, it might be best to hold off to closer to game time for wagering and consider looking at a radar forecast. Now I can feel you rolling your eyes, but here is why. Say you have Clayton Kershaw on the road against a No. 4 starter like Jonathon Niese of the Mets.

The Dodgers at -155 in New York seem like bargain with Kershaw and you bet it. You heard about the weather, no problem, you’re good.

With no score in the fourth inning, the storms move in and they end up lingering for an hour after a 15 minute downpour. With that long between pitches, manager Don Mattingly determines it was too long a wait for Kershaw to go back on the mound and skipper Terry Collins does the same thing with Niese. Now your decided edge is eliminated with the Dodgers No. 3 rated bullpen by ERA is matched against New York’s, which is fourth in the NL. If you would have only known your decided edge is now a coin flip.


Other Rainy Factors
A soggy field means the infielders have to come in because the ball will not travel at the same rate on the ground and ground balls through the infield open up the possibly for ‘leg’ doubles because if the ball dies or is rolling slowly towards the outfielder and the base-runners can see what is developing and take the extra base.

Also, clubs like Cincinnati, Arizona and the Chicago Cubs may have their stolen base attack taken away with a slow track.

Professional bettors have the time to consider the rain factors and if you do also for whatever reason, it could take you off a few unexpected losses which keeps more money in your pocket.

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