Hot Red Sox Lineup Makes For An 'Over' MLB Pick Against Astros

Drew Martin

Thursday, May 12, 2016 6:12 PM GMT

With these two starting pitchers struggling to find their groove, combined with the fact each is going against a hot lineup, I recommend an MLB pick on the over tonight.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
The hottest team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox, welcomes the Houston Astros to Fenway Park for the opening tilt of a four game series tonight. The Red Sox have climbed into a first place tie with the Baltimore Orioles atop the American League East standings as winners of 6 of their last eight games, while the Astros have climbed out of the cellar in the American League West, having gone 7-4 so far in the month of May. Both of these teams have seen an uptick in offensive production of late, and look to take full advantage of two big name starting pitchers who have yet to find their peak form this season. Let's take a look at the MLB odds and see what we can cash in on from this game.

The Red Sox offense, with a team OPS of over 1.000 the last week, has proven to be the hottest hitting team in baseball. Boston is also coming off of a series against the Oakland Athletics where the team plated 40 runs in a three game sweep of their American League West opponents. ''The lineup, up and down, it's a relentless group and they're not giving at-bats away,'' manager John Farrell said. ''We're in a stretch right now where we're driving the baseball.'' This Red Sox lineup is crushing it with Bradley hitting in the No. 9 spot, Travis Shaw, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia all hitting better than .300, and Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez just getting started, the prospects for any opposing pitcher facing this lineup are about as good as the guy who wanders off by himself early in a slasher flick. The Red Sox are also seeing lefties very well, with a team OPS near .800 vs southpaws, which does not project well for tonight’s Astros’ starter Dallas Keuchel.

The Starting Pitchers
Both of the starting pitchers tonight are former Cy Young Award winners, and both have endured rough starts through the first 20% of the season. Keuchel, who will be called upon to quiet Boston’s surging lineup, is the reigning Cy Young Award winner, but is currently sporting over a 1.50 WHIP. The 28-year-old was touched up for 16 runs and 26 hits over 16 1/3 innings in three straight losses before yielding just two runs in seven frames against Seattle in a no-decision on Saturday. The Astros pitching staff needs him to have a lengthy outing tonight though, as the Astros used eight pitchers in Wednesday's 5-3, 16-inning win over Cleveland to wrap up a 6-4 home stand.

On the other hand, David Price takes the hill for the Red Sox as he tries to bounce back from another tough outing. Price has gotten enough run support to come away with four wins, but his velocity has been down and has he made some mechanical adjustments between starts, so a volatile start is not out of the question for the 1st-year Red Sox pitcher. Price has been rocked for six runs in each of his last two starts, and has surrendered at least five earned runs in four of his seven tries. Three of those poor outings have come at home in Fenway Park where the Vanderbilt product has an ERA of 8.34.

 

Conclusions
With these two starting pitchers struggling to find their groove, combined with the fact each is going against a hot lineup, I recommend an MLB pick on the over tonight in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Not convinced? See why our other capper is going for an 'under' in this match!

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5
Best Line Offered: at YouWager