There continues to be a wide disparity in the available MLB odds across our best sportsbooks in the MLB home run props. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has surveyed the market and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday’s MLB home run props
- Mitch Haniger Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Michael Harris Over 0.5 home runs (+675 via Caesars) ⭐
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Tuesday’s MLB home run prop picks
Mitch Haniger Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐
Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin hasn’t been effective against right-handed hitters over the past two years with a 2.06 HR/9 and 37.9 hard-hit rate. Add his fastball velocity dipping to 91.6 this season, and Haniger lands in a favorable matchup.
The first-year Giant has .253 ISO and 41.9 hard-hit rate against southpaws dating back to the 2020 campaign, and I also value the potential for statistical correction with Haniger mired in a 3-for-24 slump without an extra-base hit since his last home run.
It’s also worth noting the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at a nice clip at Oracle Park on Tuesday.
|+450 🔥||+425||+425||+275 ❄️||+425|
There’s a huge edge in the odds available across our best MLB betting sites, too. The +450 number through DraftKings presents a positive expected value of 47% over the +275 number, which is also the difference of an added $17.50 of profit on a $10 wager.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
Michael Harris Over 0.5 home runs (+675 via Caesars) ⭐
The long odds and Harris’ track record against right-handed hurlers were the first two draws to this prop. Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta allowing a healthy 1.74 HR/9 to lefty bats dating back to last season was the icing on the cake.
Harris boasts a .243 ISO against right-handed hurlers, and 17 of his 20 career homers have also come against righties. Additionally, there’s positive regression ahead of his power numbers with his .133 ISO trailing last season’s .217 mark despite his hard-hit rate checking out 7.6 percentage points higher.
|+600||+520 ❄️||+550||+675 🔥||+550|
This is another recommendation where we’re receiving a nice edge by shopping for the longest odds across our best sportsbooks. The difference between the +675 price and the +520 through FanDuel is a positive expected value of 25% and an additional $15.50 of profit on a winning $10 bet.
MLB home run prop picks made 5/9/2023 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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