Home/Road Dichotomy Signals Valuable Profit on Home-Standing Twins

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 24, 2015 1:16 PM GMT

Must like the concept of the hunter (Minnesota Twins) against the hunted (NY Yankees) in their respective division races! Follow us as we share our MLB pick on Twins-Yankees series opener.

NY Yankees (Pineda) (-135) vs. Minnesota Twins (Hughes) 8:10 ET
The NY Yankees and Minnesota Twins face off in the first of a 3-game weekend series with this 8:10 ET start in Minnesota.  We are backing the home-standing Twins with the underdog concept of hunter vs. the hunted, as well as a strong home/road dichotomy.  

The Yankees enter here on a 19-11 run, winners of 4 straight following their 3-game sweep of division rival, Baltimore.  As a result, NYY has opened up a 5 ½ game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East lead.  Though NYY is a rock solid 30-17 home, they are just 23-24 on the road.  Far more disturbing is their .237 BA when traveling, compared to their .272 BA in Yankee Stadium.  Fat off a rivalry sweep with a comfortable lead, an inferior home performance sets up a play AGAINST situation for the Yankees in this spot.   

Minnesota has been a streaky team all season.  After opening 6-10, the Twins went 26-12 with inferior numbers, setting up a SELL situation.  They responded by going 11-17 to return to reality.  After that slide, the Twins are now 8-5 the last 13 games and remain in contention in the AL Central (at least in their own minds) at 6 ½ games behind the Royals.  Of equal importance is that they currently hold down a Wild Card seed in the American League.  They have played far better at home with a 31-16 record, including 8 of 10 recent home victories, where they have a .279 BA.  Tonight’sstarter, Hughes, a multi-year fixture in the Yankees’ rotation, is pitching his best ball of the year and has been solid at home.  In his last 6 starts, Hughes is 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA.  At home, Minnesota has won 7 of 10 Hughes’ starts, where he has a 1.10 WHIP.  Remember our WHIP theory, which has gone 22-9 the last 2 nights, in which we play ON and UNDER any home or road pitcher with a home or road WHIP of 1.10 or less and AGAINST and OVER any home or road pitcher with a home or road WHIP of 1.55 or higher.  

Must like the concept of the hunter (Minnesota Twins) against the hunted (NY Yankees) in their respective division races!  We combine that with the Yankees’ letdown following the sweep of a divisional rival and the Minnesota home/road dichotomy for a solid underdog play on the home-standing Twins. As an extra bonus, you know that Hughes will be pumped to face his ex-mates from his home mound.

MLB Pick: Take Minnesota Twins