Home/Road Dichotomy & Pitching Matchup Signals Easy Win for Giants +111 vs. Padres

Charles Stark

Wednesday, July 22, 2015 11:34 AM GMT

I'm going to back the San Francisco Giants today on the small plus money line to beat the San Diego Padres. There is value on this line in a very good pitching matchup in what should be a really tight low-scoring game. 

MLB odds
To me it seems like this is one of those games that can't be easy if your job is setting the lines in major league baseball. On one hand making the Giants a small favorite would make a little bit of sense with one of their best pitchers back on the mound, and on the other hand it makes sense for the Padres to be favored at home with arguably their best pitcher on the mound. It seems that the odds makers went with the latter in regards to this. The line opened up with the Giants at +112 and went down pretty quickly to +105, and that two places as of writing this you can get that number at Sports Betting sports book and Bet Online sports book. The way the line is already moved though I would not be surprised if the Giants were a small favorite before first pitch.

 

Pitching matchup
This should be a good one and for the Giants Matt Cain takes the mound for his fourth start of the season. Because he has only three starts his ERA is a bit up over 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.44, but he is still getting his feet wet and has looked pretty good so far. Career wise we are talking about a guy with a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 283 career starts. Anytime you can get plus money or even a pick with Cain on the mound that is good value in my opinion. For San Diego James Shields takes the mound with a 3.92 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He is looking to bounce back against the Giants because last time they knocked him around quite a bit when he gave up seven earned runs. I don't expect the Giants to have that much success against him today but they should do enough to give Cain the support he needs to win this game.

 

At the plate
Besides the good pitching matchup which is pretty even in my opinion the Giants have the better offensive stats when compared to the Padres. The Giants ranked 11th in the league in runs scored per game compared to the Padres who rank 21st. There is actually an interesting angle on this stat whereas the Giants score at a higher rate on the road per average the Padres are worse at home, albeit slightly. But that is not the only statistic in which this comes into play, in OPS the same holds true, the Giants are better on the road and the Padres are worse at home. Overall in OPS the Giants ranked eighth and the Padres 27th.

The Giants are the better baseball team then the Padres and have the rings to prove it. With Cain on the mound and some good home and away disparities the Giants have a good chance to win this game. From a pick to any kind of plus money that is good value in what should be one of the better games of the day, back the Giants.

MLB Pick: Giants +111 at BetOnline