Home/Road Dichotomy Makes Blue Jays Run line Value Look Ripe for the Picking

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, August 5, 2015 1:43 PM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2015 1:43 PM GMT

Can Toroto continue it's winning ways tonight in hopes of a future sweep against Minnesota? Join us as we preview the odds for this matchup and share our free baseball pick.

Minnesota Twins (Duffey) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) 7:05 ET
This is the 3rd of a 4-game early week set between the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 ET. The first 2 games have gone the way of the Blue Jays with victories of 5-1 and 3-1 last night. That win puts the Blue Jays into the 2nd Wild Card spot, as they lead both Baltimore and this fading Minnesota team by 1 game. Expect the momentum of these teams to continue tonight, as we back the home/road dichotomy that is Hutchison against the Minnesota Twins’ starter Duffey, who is making his MLD (Major League Debut).

Since June 1st, the SELL signal has been out on Minnesota based on their bottom 3rd OPS in both pitching and hitting. That continues, as they are on current slides of 22-30 and 4-12. It is only getting worse, as they have plated just 1 run in 4 of 5 recent contests. With losses in the first 2 games of this set, the Twins have fallen to 20-30 on the road, including 1-6 recently in which they have totaled just 10 runs. Tonight’s starter, T. Duffey, makes his Major League debut in place of injured starter, Milone, who is headed to the DL. Working at both AA and AAA minor league ball this season, Duffey has a record of 6-8 with a 2.66 ERA. I promise that none of the lineups he faced are remotely akin to the Toronto Blue Jays he will face tonight.

Toronto appears to have gotten a major emotional lift with the acquisition of ace, David Price, to lead their rotation. In the last week, Toronto is 6-1. The Blue Jays continue to lead MLB with a .775 OPS and averaging over 5 RPG. With a pair of victories in the first 2 games of this set, the Blue Jays now stand 34-21 at home. It is this field where tonight’s starter, Hutchison, has done his best work. In 10 home starts, the Blue Jays have gone 8-2 with Hutchison posting a 2.47 ERA and a PLAY ON 1.10 home WHIP. That is no small part a function of the 6.2 RPG run support received by the right-hander. With the Blue Jay bats continuing to boom, expect this support to continue.

With these teams heading the opposite way, especially offensively, and the Blue Jays holding a huge home/road dichotomy, we must back Toronto and the strong work done from this mound by Hutchison. Run line players take note, 45 of 56 Toronto wins (more than 80%) have come by 2 or more runs. Play the Blue Jays again tonight on the run line.

MLB Pick: Take Blue Jays -1 ½ R/EVEN

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