Home/Road Dichotomy Influence Yankees vs. Orioles MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, August 11, 2014 3:25 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 11, 2014 3:25 PM UTC

 Join handicapper Joe Gavazzi as his selected MLB team puts their knee on the windpipe of the outmanned visitor and comes away with an easier than expected victory.

NY Yankees (Capuano) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Norris) (-135) 7:05 ET
10* Baltimore (-135)
These two teams are locked in a battle for division superiority. Often times, playing the underdog with need is the way to look in such situations. It is not the case in our matchup today. Positive momentum and serious history join with a home/road dichotomy pitching matchup to make this a value winner.

Baltimore leads NYY by 6 games in the AL East race with Toronto clinging to a 1 game lead over the Yankees for 2nd place. The New York rotation has been battered and bruised from stem to stern with the most notable absences coming in the persons of Tanaka and Sabathia. As a result, they must turn to retreads such as the aging Chris Capuano. Since entering the rotation for the New Yorkers, the Bronx Bombers have gone 1-2, despite the fact Capuano has pitched 19 innings, allowing 7 runs. The real problem for the veteran has come on the road where this year, in the span of 24 2/3 IP, Capuano has a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. 

That is in stark contrast to the work done by the reliable Bud Norris from this mound. In 8 starts at home, Norris has worked 51 2/3 IP with a 2.61 ERA. Norris is in good current form. In his 8 most recent starts, he has gone 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA. That has included his most recent 2 starts where in 12 1/3 IP, Norris has allowed just 2 runs.  His performance in this timeframe is a reason why Baltimore has been one of the hottest teams in baseball. Of course, pitching is not the only reason.

With one of the most prolific, power-laden offenses in MLB, the offense has joined the pitching to author a recent record of 26-10. All the above has translated into positive returns for Baltimore when playing New York this season. The series record is now 6-3 favoring Baltimore with the Birds outscoring the Yankees 44-25 in those games. New York cooled over the weekend to enter this matchup on a 0-2 slide, being outscored 7-1 in the two games combined. 

Prediction: At this value price, I strongly recommend the better hitting and better pitching of Baltimore to prevail, as the Orioles firmly place their knee on the windpipe of the visitors and extend their divisional lead.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles at BetCris Sportbook

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