Home Edge & Superb Pitching to be the Difference: Pick Nationals SU Over Giants

David Lawrence

Friday, July 3, 2015 12:02 PM GMT

The San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals both played in the playoffs last season and will go at it again tonight. Which team will we be making a profit with for our MLB picks? Find out here!

Momentum
Both teams are coming off very unexpected series losses this week. The Giants got swept in Miami by the Marlins, a highly unexpected development. The Giants’ bullpen, normally so reliable, lost some of those games, and that might be the worst part of the series to stomach for San Francisco. The Giants expect their pitching in general to handle opposing teams, but the thing San Francisco should be angry about is that this Miami team didn’t have its best position player, slugger Giancarlo Stanton. There’s no way Miami should have had as much hitting success as it did against the Giants. San Francisco limps into Washington wondering what is happening… and needing to make sure it doesn’t fall into a six- or seven-game deficit in the National League West by the All-Star break.

Washington doesn’t face as severe a problem as San Francisco, but the Nationals are not coming into this series with a satisfied feeling, either. The Nationals not only lost a three-game series to the Atlanta Braves; they lost the deciding game of the series by wasting another strong outing by ace Max Scherzer. The Nats lost 2-1 on a run in the bottom of the ninth inning. They could not solve an Atlanta pitcher who was making his major league debut. It’s hard enough to lose a one-run game in the bottom of the ninth on a walk-off. It’s worse when you had a pitching matchup that was stacked very heavily in your favor.

 

Pitching Matchup
While keeping in mind that the Nationals had a great pitching matchup on Thursday night and blew it, it still has to be said that Washington has another highly advantageous pitching confrontation here in this game on Friday night. San Francisco starter Jake Peavy is coming off the 15-day disabled list for back injuries he’s suffered, injuries that have kept him out of commission for two and a half months. Peavy hasn’t started a game since April 17 this season. He’s made only two starts in 2015, and he gave up four runs in both without completing more than four full innings. Peavy didn’t go deep into the playoff games he pitched last season, so even if he is decent in this game, you shouldn’t expect him to last more than five innings.

Washington starter Gio Gonzalez has not been particularly good this season, with his ERA at 4.41. He did give up five runs in only 3 1/3 innings on June 15 against Tampa Bay. However, in his most recent start on June 21, he threw seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh. That should put him in position to win this matchup.

 

What’s The Pick?
The Nationals lost one very favorable pitching matchup on Thursday. Will they lose two in a row? Don’t bet on it. Gonzalez has improved by the month with a 5.01 ERA in April, 4.54 in May and 3.57 in June. He has a 2.65 ERA with a .248 opponent batting average at home compared to 5.89 and .313 on the road. Given how well he’s pitching and how strong he is at home and given Peavy’s struggles, the Nationals are the baseball pick here on the MLB lines.

MLB Pick: Washington at GTBets

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