Home Dog Reds Hold Good Value In MLB Odds Board vs. Pirates

Ross Benjamin

Monday, May 9, 2016 2:00 PM UTC

Monday, May. 9, 2016 2:00 PM UTC

Go inside to get all the relevant info and a free MLB pick on Monday’s MLB game between the Pirates and Reds, and share in the winnings Sportsbook Review brings you.

The Reds and Pirates open a three game series on Monday evening at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. This will already be the third series of the season between these NL Central Division rivals. The home teams have gone 2-1 during each of the previously two, and four of those six overall encounters went over the total. Since 2014, Cincinnati has gone 14-8 (.636) at home against Pittsburgh. Current MLB odds has Cincinnati as a +115 money line home underdog, and the posted total is 9.


Starting Pitching Report
Pittsburgh southpaw Jonathan Niese has displayed poor form during his previous three starts, and that’s evidenced by his massive 2.48 WHIP during those outings. Niese has been prone to giving up the long ball during his first six starts of 2016. He’s allowed an alarming 7 home runs in just 33 1/3 innings pitched. Considering that Cincinnati has smacked 25 homers in 19 home games this year, that part of Niese’s 2016 pitching resume takes on added significance.

Daniel Straily has been solid for Cincinnati during his first four starts this season, posting a very respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Straily has made one start against the Pirates this season, and that came on 4/29 in Pittsburgh. He turned in a very good performance during that outing, allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits while walking 3 in 6.0 innings.


Additional Key Factors
The Cincinnati bullpen has been horrible this season, most notably surrendering 25 home runs in 111.0 innings of work. However, Pittsburgh possesses very little power in their lineup. The Pirates have hit only 15 home runs in 30 games. Despite their limited power, Pittsburgh has hit very well as a team. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case in their last seven outings. During that stretch, Pittsburgh is averaging only 3.3 runs scored per game, and had a less than impressive .308 OBP.

Cincinnati has gone a dismal 2-10 (.167) in away games to start the year. Contrarily, they’re 11-8 (.579) at home thus far. The Reds have averaged a lofty 5.9 runs scored per game, and also compiled an impressive .458 slugging percentage over their last seven outings.


Money Line Betting Angle
Cincinnati’s bullpen has a large 6.57 ERA as a staff thus far. Pittsburgh possesses a stellar .281 team batting average in 2016. Pittsburgh starter Jonathan Niese has posted a mammoth 8.81 ERA over his last three starts.

Any team with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse, facing a National League opponent with a team batting average of .275 or better, and their pitcher has compiled a 7.00 ERA or more during his last three starts, resulted in those teams going 36-13 (73.5%) against the money line since 1997.

With all factors taken into account, I’m using the home underdog for one of my Monday MLB picks.

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Free MLB Pick: Reds +115
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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