Home Dog Brewers To Bite In Low Scoring Affair

Swinging Johnson

Monday, September 5, 2016 3:13 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 5, 2016 3:13 PM UTC

The league-leading Cubs will travel to Milwaukee to meet their divisional rivals in a three-game set that starts this afternoon. Let's review the MLB odds and cash a winning ticket in this NL Central showdown.

Everything went exactly as I predicted in yesterday's Giants/Cubs clash...except the ending. Johnny Cueto outpitched John Lackey and took his underdog Giants into the eighth inning up 2-1 in a closely contested game of NL superpowers. I was ready to cash my sixth MLB pick in a row until Jason Heyward unraveled my carefully thought out plan with a game-tying hit in the ninth and a game-winning hit in the 13th to claim a 3-2 Cubs victory.

C'est la vie. I always speak French when I'm depressed. Well, rather than dwell on our bad beat I suggest we get back on the horse and start a brand new winning streak. Let's review what the MLB odds makers are doling out on this contest between the best team in the regular season and a rival that has already begun making vacation plans for the offseason. Without further ado, let's go!


Young Guns Havin' Some Fun
The preceding headline comes to you courtesy of a cheesy song from the 80's but has relevance to what is essentially a meaningless game in 2016. Here we have a tale of two young pitchers that are making noise this season with Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (13-7, 2.06, 0.98) making a case for this season's NL Cy Young Award while his opposing number, 23-year-old Zach Davies who was basically an afterthought in the Brewers' rotation before the season started, leads the club with 10 wins. It should be a pitcher's duel this afternoon with Hendrick's owning a clear edge despite Davies' success this season.

But to dismiss Zach Davies (10-6, 4.07, 1.26) and the floundering Brewers might be a mistake. Milwaukee is coming off a series sweep of the Pirates in which they mashed the Bucs in a 10-0 throttling yesterday and averaged six runs per game over the three-game set. Milwaukee has now won four straight and will trot out their most winning pitcher to handle the first of three against the best team in baseball. Davies was solid in his last outing, allowing three runs to the Cardinals in what became a 6-5 loss at home. In his previous appearance he stifled the Colorado Rockies, surrendering just one run over six innings in a 7-1 victory. Davies is 2-1 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 4.41 and a WHIP of 1.164 and his team's record is 2-1 (+2.4 units) in these starts.


CH Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
I like to look at value as a component of a wager and take the plunge when I see it. I will grant you that it is a difficult proposition to back a team that you would ordinarily bet against if all things were even. But the MLB odds makers make certain that all things are not even when dealing their lines to a public with a voracious appetite for over-inflated favorites. We call them squares and as hard as it is to admit, they are often right despite laying enormous numbers on chalky favorites. However, those numbers eventually catch up to them as live dogs can reap tremendous returns.

So here we have a Brewers' team that looks about as good as it has all season, which isn't difficult when you trudge around a 60-76 mark even after winning your last four. We also have a young pitcher with a modicum of success in his limited appearances against an MLB juggernaut. Furthermore, we have a Cubs team that toiled through 13 innings yesterday only to pack up and move out to Milwaukee in order to play a game this afternoon.

As dominant as Kyle Hendricks has been, I will direct your attention to his last appearance in Milwaukee back in May ( a long time ago I grant you) when he was touched for four runs in just over five innings of work in a 4-2 loss. In addition, there is value on the under in this game as well. Five of the six games between these clubs have gone under this season and the under is 8-0 in Hendricks last eight starts against Milwaukee.

Let's grab the big number on the hot home team with the upstart pitcher against what should be a weary Cubs' squad after yesterday's 13 inning marathon, in a low scoring affair.


Free MLB Pick: Brewers +210 & Under 8 +100 
Best Line Offered: Brewers +210 at Bovada & Under 8 +100 at Bookmaker
Swinger’s MLB Record: 71-44, +25.70 units

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