Home Dog Betting Value Alert in Braves vs. Reds in Cincinnati

Steven Suarez

Saturday, August 23, 2014 4:09 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 23, 2014 4:09 PM UTC

Things couldn't be going much differently for the Braves and Reds right now. Atlanta's been playing much better of late, while Cincinnati has dropped seven straight games. What's our best play with our MLB picks tonight?

Odds Overview
The Braves enter as road favorites, but they're not favored by much. Current MLB odds show them listed right around -125 to get the win, with Cincinnati quoted at +115.

The total for tonight's game is at 7.5 runs, and there's been fairly even action on both the 'under' and 'over' so far.


Atlanta Braves (Santana)
The Braves are on a great run at the moment, having won two straight and eight of their last 10 to push to 68-61 on the season.

Yet, Atlanta is still six games back of Washington in the division, as the Nationals have been just as good and have shown no signs of slowing down. The Braves, however, haven't exactly been world-beaters on the road, going 31-33 ahead of tonight's game.

Ervin Santana will start for Atlanta in hopes of leading the team to a third straight win. The right-hander is 13-6 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and has 141 strikeouts in 155.1 innings this season. In his latest start, he allowed eight hits and three runs over 5.1 innings in a 7-3 win over Pittsburgh.

On the road, Santana has gone 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA through 12 starts, which are certainly shakier numbers than what he's put up at Turner Field. Santana gave up nine hits and four runs over 6.2 innings in his one meeting with Cincinnati earlier this season.

Offensively, Atlanta has turned it up a notch, hitting .271 as a team over the last seven days. Justin Upton (.481) has been the top dog lately.


Cincinnati Reds (Leake)
Last night's loss means the Reds have now dropped seven consecutive games. They're at 61-68 overall, which puts them 10.5 games back of the division-leading Brewers.

Desperate for a victory, Cincinnati turns to Mike Leake, who's 9-11 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP so far in 2014.

Five days ago, in a road matchup against St. Louis, Leake was solid in allowing eight hits and four runs over seven innings. He didn't factor into the decision, but still gave the Reds a chance to get the win over a division rival. Cincinnati would love the same this evening.

Leake has faced Atlanta once this season, surrendering eight hits and four runs while striking out four over seven innings. At home on the year, the right-hander is 4-6 with a 3.62 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 79.2 innings.

Unfortunately for Leake, the Reds' bats haven't been too hot lately. As a team they're hitting a paltry .212 over the last seven days, with Billy Hamilton (.323) really the only guy that's been producing at the dish.


MLB Pick
After looking over the different angles, we've decided to take Cincinnati at this underdog price.

We realize the Reds are on a lengthy losing streak, but this is a good spot for them to right the ship and get back on track. They're at home with a solid pitcher on the mound, and it's not like Santana has been totally dominant recently.

Because of Santana's shaky road splits – hitters are batting .282 against him – we think Cincinnati may be able to have success at the plate. With that said, let's roll with the Reds to end the streak and secure the win at Bovada.

Free MLB Pick: Reds +115

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