Home Cookin' is the Recipe in Sunday's MLB Picks: Mining The Diamond

Phils and Dbacks play for our MLB picks today.

Sunday, June 25, 2017 2:59 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond analyzes Sunday's card with an eye towards cashing in our two top MLB picks. Let's evaluate the matchups, historical trends, and odds to end the week on a high note.

Cubs (38-36, -14.3 units) vs. Marlins (33-40, -5.8 units)

* Miami is 28-20 (+13.2 units) against left-handed starters over the last two seasons.

* Miami is 7-4 (+3.0 units) when playing on Sunday this season.

* Miami's starter Edinson Volquez's team record is 11-0 (+11.7 units) when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.484.

* Chicago is 5-11 (-8.8 units) in road games after a win this season.

* Chicago's starter Mike Montgomery's team record is 3-12 (-11.1 units) after a win over the last two seasons

* Chicago is 4-11 (-7.9 units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

The trend that leapt off the page was Miami's Edinson Volquez's sterling record when facing the Chicago Cubs. Eleven times he has gotten the start against the Cubs and 11 times his team won that game. Compound that with the fact that Chicago's starter Mike Montgomery's team record is 3-12 after a win over the last two seasons and the Marlins are 6-4 (+3.4 units) against the Cubs over the last three seasons in all games played in Miami. Although the Marlins dropped a 5-3 decision yesterday, look for them to earn a split of this four-game set and back them in your MLB picks on Sunday.

MLB Pick: Marlins (+111)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Phillies (24-49, -19.7 units) vs. Diamondbacks (47-28, +18.9 units)

* Arizona is 27-10 (+15.2 units) in home games this season.

* Arizona is 37-20 (+16.4 units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Arizona is 30-16 (+12.9 units) after a win this season.

* Philadelphia is 13-36 (-18.5 units) after a loss this season.

* Philadelphia is 15-36 (-18.8 units) against right-handed starters this season.

* Philadelphia is 10-29 (-14.7 units) in road games this season.

Value comes in many different forms and the novice bettor often believes it equates strictly to big underdogs that are getting a bigger price than maybe they should. But value can be found in a big favorite that quite simply should be a much bigger favorite than the MLB odds indicate. That is the case with the Diamondbacks this afternoon. Arizona has won four of five from the Phillies this season and will make it five of six with Zack Greinke on the hill. Let's take a look at what Greinke brings to the table today:

* Zack Greinke's team record is 40-10 (+20.6 units) as a home favorite of -175 to -250 in his career.

* Zack Greinke's team record is 65-25 (+33.7 units) in home games after a win in his career.

* Zack Greinke's team record is 18-4 (+11.7 units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.

And if that wasn't enough, compare the starting pitchers' career records against their respective opponents today. Greinke is 6-1 when starting against the Phillies with an ERA of 2.78 and a WHIP of 0.90, while Philadelphia's starter Jeremy Hellickson is  0-3 when starting against the Diamondbacks with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.43. This is a total mismatch and the odds should be well north of -200 on the Snakes today which is why Arizona is included as one of our top two premier plays today. Lay the lumber and like it!

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks (-181)Best Line Offered: at BetOnline 

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